Texas vs. Clemson score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Texas vs. Clemson in this first round College Football Playoff game.

Texas Longhorns vs. Clemson Tigers football prediction 2024 / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Texas welcomes Clemson to the Forty Acres this weekend in a historic first-ever College Football Playoff matchup on campus. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas is one of the two most-favored teams to win the national championship this season, with two losses to Georgia the only blemish on its record, and winning 10 of its 11 other games by double digits.

Clemson lost in the regular season finale to rival South Carolina, but with Miami’s loss that same day was able to qualify for the ACC title game, which it won against favored SMU to earn a place as the No. 12 seed in the College Football Playoff, the team’s first appearance since 2020.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Tigers visit the Longhorns this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Clemson and Texas compare in this first round College Football Playoff game.

Texas vs. Clemson score prediction

As expected, the models are projecting the Longhorns will dominate at home against the Tigers in this historic postseason matchup.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Clemson by a projected score of 32 to 19 and will win the game by an expected margin of 13.2 points in the process.

The model gives the Longhorns a dominant 80 percent chance of victory against the Tigers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.

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Clemson vs. Texas odds, how to pick the game

Texas is a big 11.5 point favorite against Clemson, according to the lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -112, Under -108).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -480 and for Clemson at -365 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Texas -11.5
• Longhorns to win -480
• Bet under 51.5 points

That would put you in the minority of bettors, most of whom expect the Tigers will keep this closer against the Longhorns, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Clemson is getting 61 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin under a dozen points in a defeat.

The other 39 percent of wagers project Texas will cover the point spread and advance to the quarterfinal round.

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Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models also favor the Longhorns over the Tigers in this game.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction system that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Texas is a considerable favorite on the index, which projects the Longhorns will win the game in 80.4 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the contest.

That leaves Clemson as the presumptive winner in the remaining 19.6 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory for the game?

Texas is projected to be 14.9 points better than Clemson on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Texas vs. Clemson prediction: What the analytics say

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College Football Playoff bracket

No. 12 Clemson at
No. 5 Texas

Winner plays No. 4 Arizona State

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No. 11 SMU at
No. 6 Penn State

Winner plays No. 3 Boise State

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No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Notre Dame

Winner plays No. 2 Georgia

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No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State

Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

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College Football Playoff rankings

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. Boise State
10. SMU
11. Alabama
12. Arizona State
13. Miami
14. Ole Miss 
15. South Carolina
16. Clemson
17. BYU
18. Iowa State
19. Missouri
20. Illinois
21. Syracuse
22. Army
23. Colorado
24. UNLV
25. Memphis

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How to watch Clemson vs. Texas

When: Sat., Dec. 21
Where: Austin, Tex.

Time: 4 p.m. ET | 3 p.m. CT
TV: TNT network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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