Texas vs. Florida football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert model offers a prediction for Texas vs. Florida in this Week 11 college football game.

Texas vs. Florida football prediction / Brett Patzke-Imagn Images

SEC football kicks off this weekend as No. 5 Texas returns home against Florida. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games.

Texas edged out Vanderbilt by three points two weeks ago heading into the bye and wants to start building some momentum in SEC play after the loss to Georgia and as playoff selection draws closer.

Florida had Georgia on the ropes for a while last week, tying that game in the fourth quarter before allowing two late touchdowns and fell to 4-4 heading into the second of four games against highly-ranked opponents to end the season.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Texas vs. Florida predictions

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Longhorns over the Gators.

Texas emerged as the big favorite at home, coming out ahead in the overwhelming majority 90.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 9.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate to a projected margin of victory in the matchup?

Texas is projected to be 20.4 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Longhorns to cover the spread against the Gators.

That’s because Texas is a 21.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -2500 and for Florida at +1160 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A slight majority of bettors expect the Gators will keep things closer against the Longhorns, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Florida is getting 53 percent of bets to either win outright in an upset, or more likely to keep the final margin to three touchdowns or fewer in a loss.

The other 47 percent of wagers expect Texas will win the game and cover the spread.

Texas vs. Florida future predictions

Texas is second among SEC teams with a 78.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Longhorns a win total prediction of 10.8 games this season.

Georgia (92.6%) leads the SEC in terms of odds to make the 12-team playoff.

Florida is projected to win 5.5 games this season, and has a 48.8 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (62)
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State
13. SMU
14. LSU
15. Texas A&M
16. Ole Miss
17. Iowa State
18. Army
19. Clemson
20. Washington State
21. Colorado
22. Kansas State
23. Pittsburgh
24. Vanderbilt
25. Louisville

How to watch Florida vs. Texas

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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