Texas vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Texas vs. Florida in this Week 11 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas vs. Florida score prediction / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

A notable SEC matchup kicks off this weekend as No. 5 Texas returns home against conference rival Florida on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Florida comes into the game fresh off the announcement that head coach Billy Napier will stay on, putting to bed all that talk of his apparently-imminent dismissal after starting out at 4-4 overall, but he gets a temporary vote of confidence from the school heading into next season.

Texas is in postseason mode, debuting at No. 5 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, but just outside the coveted top-four position, needing to not just win out but get some outside help to earn a first-round bye.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Longhorns and Gators face off in this SEC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Florida and Texas compare in this Week 11 college football game.

Florida vs. Texas score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the Longhorns over the Gators in this matchup.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Florida by a projected score of 37 to 18 and will win the game by an expected margin of 19.6 points.

The model gives the Longhorns a strong 89 percent chance of outright victory over the Gators.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Texas vs. Florida odds, how to pick

Texas is a 21.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -2500 and for Florida at +1100 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Florida +21.5
• Texas to win -2500
• Bet over 47.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors, who are giving the Gators a shot to keep it closer than expected against the Longhorns, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Florida is getting 56 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or more likely, to keep the final margin to 3 touchdowns or fewer in a loss.

The other 44 percent of wagers project Texas will win the game and cover the big point spread.

Texas vs. Florida splits

Texas comes into the game ranked No. 2 nationally with a plus-26.1 point differential this season, while Florida is just 0.1 point worse than opponents on average.

Those margins have diverged over the last three games, as the Longhorns have averaged 6.3 points better than the competition while the Gators are 2.7 points better on average over that span.

But the Longhorns have been very dominant at home, winning games by an average of 31.2 points this season, compared to the Gators, who are 1 point worse than opponents when on the road.

Texas ranks No. 1 nationally by allowing 0.176 points per play this season, while Florida is 46th in FBS with 0.431 points per play on average.

Playing on offense, the Longhorns rank No. 18 in FBS with 0.522 points per play while the Gators average 66th nationally in surrendering 0.371 points per play on average.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models are also taking the Longhorns over the Gators in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 90.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 9.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into a projected margin of victory in the game?

Texas is expected to be 20.4 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Texas vs. Florida future projections

Texas is second among SEC teams with an 81.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects the Longhorns will win 10.8 games this season.

Florida isn’t a factor in the College Football Playoff race this year with a 4-4 record coming in, but has a fighting chance at making an appearance in the postseason.

The index forecasts the Gators have a win total projection of 5.5 games and a 48 percent chance to become bowl eligible.

How to watch Florida vs. Texas

When: Sat., Nov. 9
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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