Texas Longhorns vs. Georgia Bulldogs prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Georgia and Texas play in the SEC Championship Game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Texas vs. Georgia prediction for the 2024 SEC Championship Game / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The road to college football’s national championship is often paved through the SEC Championship Game, and that could be the case again in 2024, as Georgia and Texas face off not just for the conference crown, but for a more lucrative position in the College Football Playoff.

The winner of this game receives an automatic bid into the 12-team field, that much is certain. And the rankings are such that even the loser is virtually guaranteed a spot, as well.

But whoever wins in Atlanta is set to receive the coveted first-round bye, while the loser will have to play that week, although almost certainly in a home game.

Right now, the committee projects Texas will have the privilege of resting in the first round, while Georgia is expected to host Big Ten upstart Indiana in the opening playoff matchup.

But those are mere projections. Georgia and Texas have to settle it on the field first. Here’s what you should watch for as the Bulldogs and Longhorns fight for the SEC championship, with our updated prediction for the game.

Georgia vs. Texas: SEC Championship Game Prediction

Texas faces Georgia in the 2024 SEC Championship Game / Sara Diggins/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

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How can Georgia win the game

It’s been said forever that winning games in the SEC depends on how you play in the trenches, and it’s as true today as it ever has been, especially in this matchup.

Georgia’s offensive line has been touch-and-go this season. When it’s there, Carson Beck has the time to keep the offense on schedule and strike deep. When it’s not, the result has been disaster.

Just watch how the line failed to hold off Ole Miss’ front rushers in an ugly 28-10 loss.

And then how it responded against Tennessee’s even better front seven, not allowing any sacks or real pressure, which gave Beck the time to connect with his downfield targets in a signature win.

Texas presents another formidable challenge at the line, and really all over this defense, ranking third nationally in total production and tops in FBS surrendering 3.99 yards per play, the only team in the country whose number in that category is under four.

Moreover, the Longhorns are No. 1 in allowing 24 plays of 20 or more yards and just 7 gains of at least 30 yards, so it all starts for Georgia by standing firm up front and using that precious time to develop its throwing lanes in the deep field.

Running the ball will be crucial for the Bulldogs, but difficult: Texas may not be quite as lethal in run defense as it was last season, but it still allows just 3.04 yards per carry and is among the top dozen best rotations in the country.

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How can Texas win the game

Be the more dominant team on both lines and get after Georgia’s secondary right away.

On paper, the Bulldogs are 37th in FBS against the pass, but the unit has been susceptible at times this season when looking to contain talented opposing skill targets, and has just 6 interceptions on the year, the fifth-fewest in the country.

If the Longhorns can generate early and consistent pressure on Beck, that could have the effect of throwing Georgia’s entire offensive strategy out of sorts.

Especially as lead back Trevor Etienne is dealing with a rib injury that has forced him from three straight games and leaves him questionable for this matchup.

Beck can be forced into mistakes when working under pressure: there was a month where he threw more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (5) and 3 of those picks came against the Longhorns.

But he has 11 touchdowns and no turnovers in the last three games. It’s up to Texas to play its role in determining what version of Georgia’s quarterback is on the field.

Texas’ run game was a non-factor the first time against Georgia, amassing 29 total yards and all of 1.1 yards per carry, but this backfield has taken a more aggressive posture in recent outings.

That’s thanks to Quintrevion Wisner, a revelation for the Texas offense, carrying for 344 yards on 59 attempts and nearly 6 yards per touch over the last 2 games.

Quinn Ewers had 2 fumbles and a pick against the Bulldogs earlier this season, but has been more efficient of late, and Arch Manning should get some reps as a dual-threat option in some packages.

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Who is favored?

Texas is a 2.5 point favorite against Georgia, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the SEC championship.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -144 and for Georgia at +118 to win outright.

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Georgia vs. Texas prediction: Who wins the SEC Championship?

Since the offense was more or less humiliated by Georgia the last time out, Texas went to work making adjustments for how it blocks to open up running lanes and keep its pocket clean.

The proof is in the pudding, as the Longhorns’ run game has improved to such an extent that it now has the ability to keep the offense out of too many obvious passing situations.

An improved offensive line and a resurrected ground attack combined with what is arguably the best defense in college football is enough to go with the Longhorns here.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Texas wins 27-21
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Georgia vs. Texas score prediction by football model

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How to watch the SEC Championship Game

When: Sat., Dec. 7
Where: Atlanta, Ga.

Time: 4 p.m. ET | 3 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

More ... SEC Championship Game history, scores

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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