Texas vs. Georgia score prediction for SEC Championship Game by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Texas vs. Georgia in the 2024 SEC Championship Game by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas vs. Georgia score prediction in the 2024 SEC Championship Game / Sara Diggins/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Georgia and Texas face off in a highly-anticipated rematch, this time in the 2024 SEC Championship Game as College Football Playoff selection draws closer. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas is looking to make a major statement in its first season as members of the SEC, going 11-1 in the regular season with a chance to hoist the league crown and earn a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff, proving that the Longhorns are, indeed, back.

And looking for revenge in this game, with their one loss of the season coming as the No. 1 team in the country at the hands of Georgia back in Austin in their meeting in October.

Georgia looks to tighten its recent grip on the SEC, playing in this game for the seventh time in nine years and looking for its third national championship under head coach Kirby Smart.

What do the analytics suggest for the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Texas compare in the SEC Championship Game.

Georgia vs. Texas score prediction

So far, the models are going with the Longhorns over the Bulldogs in this rematch, but by a very narrow margin in the process.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Georgia by a projected score of 27 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 1.5 points.

The model gives the Longhorns a narrow 54 percent chance of outright victory over the Bulldogs.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 35-35-1 (53%) last weekend.

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SEC Championship odds, how to pick the game

Texas is a 2.5 point favorite against Georgia, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the SEC championship.

FanDuel set the total at 49.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Texas at -144 and for Georgia at +118 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Georgia +2.5
• Texas to win -144
• Bet over 49.5 points

So far, a plurality of bettors expect the Longhorns to come out on top against the Bulldogs and win the SEC championship, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas is getting 62 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 38 percent of wagers project Georgia will either win the game outright in an upset or keep the final margin under a field goal in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models expect the Longhorns will take down the Bulldogs.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas is the big favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in the majority 61.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

The index calculated that Georgia won the game in 38.4 percent of its simulations.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Texas is projected to be 4.2 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current capacity, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... SEC Championship Game prediction: What the analytics say

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College Football Playoff rankings for Championship Week

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
18. BYU
19. Missouri
20. UNLV
21. Illinois
22. Syracuse
23. Colorado
24. Army
25. Memphis

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What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 SMU
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Penn State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Alabama at
No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Georgia
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First two out: Miami, Ole Miss

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How to watch Texas vs. Georgia in the SEC Championship Game

When: Sat., Dec. 7
Where: Atlanta, Ga.

Time: 4 p.m. ET | 3 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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