Texas vs. Kentucky football prediction: What the analytics say
SEC football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 3 Texas looks to stay in the playoff hunt against Kentucky. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that simulates games.
Texas sits atop the SEC standings and with no margin for error in the league title race with other contenders sitting right behind waiting to take advantage.
Kentucky ended a four-game losing streak with a win over Murray State last week and sits at 1-6 in SEC play and just 108th nationally in scoring this season.
Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.
The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.
Texas vs. Kentucky predictions
As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Longhorns over the Wildcats.
Texas is the big favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the overwhelming 94.7 percent of the computer’s latest simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Kentucky as the presumptive winner in the remaining 5.3 percent of sims.
In total, the Longhorns come out on top in 18,940 of the computer’s simulations of the game, while the Wildcats edged out Texas in the other 1,060 predictions.
How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?
Texas is projected to be 25.5 points better than Kentucky on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.
If so, that would be enough for the Longhorns to cover the big spread.
That’s because Texas is a 20.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook in the game.
FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).
And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -2000 and for Kentucky at +980 to win outright.
What the bettors say
A majority of bettors expect the Wildcats will make this closer than expected against the Longhorns, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
Kentucky is getting 58 percent of bets to either win outright in the upset or to keep the margin under three touchdowns in a loss.
The other 42 percent of wagers project Texas will win the game and cover the spread.
Texas vs. Kentucky future projections
Texas is second among SEC teams with a 90.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model projects the Longhorns will win 11.1 games this season.
Kentucky is in a fight just to make the postseason at all with only two games left in the regular season.
FPI projects the Wildcats have a 1.8 percent chance to become bowl eligible and will win 4.4 games in 2024, implying they won’t win either of those last two games.
College Football Power Index
Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
College Football Playoff rankings for Week 13
- Oregon
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Penn State
- Indiana
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- Miami
- Ole Miss
- Georgia
- Tennessee
- Boise State
- SMU
- BYU
- Texas A&M
- Colorado
- Clemson
- South Carolina
- Army
- Tulane
- Arizona State
- Iowa State
- Missouri
- UNLV
- Illinois
How to watch Kentucky vs. Texas
When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Austin, Tex.
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 2:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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