Texas vs. Kentucky score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Texas vs. Kentucky by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas vs. Kentucky score prediction 2024 / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

SEC football kicks off on Saturday as No. 3 Texas returns home against Kentucky. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Texas comes into this weekend as the projected SEC champion and presumptive No. 2 seed with a first-round bye in the new College Football Playoff, according to the selection committee, but has no margin for error with this game and the finale at Texas A&M coming up.

Kentucky has been out of the picture for some time, but stopped a four-game losing skid by routing Murray State last week, albeit still ranking just 105th nationally in scoring per game this season.

What do the analytical models suggest will happen when the Longhorns and Wildcats face off in this SEC clash on the Forty Acres?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Texas and Kentucky compare in this Week 13 college football game.

Texas vs. Kentucky score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the Longhorns, and by a big margin, too.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Kentucky by a projected score of 36 to 13 and will win the game by an expected margin of 23.2 points in the process.

The model gives the Longhorns a strong 93 percent chance of outright victory over UK.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 315-293-8 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-30 (43.4%) last weekend.

Texas vs. Kentucky odds, how to pick the game

Texas is a 20.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -1800 and for Kentucky at +920 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Texas -20.5
• Longhorns to win -1800
• Bet over 46.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors, most of whom expect the Wildcats will keep things closer than expected against the Longhorns, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Kentucky is getting 58 percent of bets currently to either pull off the upset or, more likely, to keep the game under the generous point spread in a loss.

The other 42 percent of wagers project Texas will win the game by at least three touchdowns and cover the line.

Texas vs. Kentucky splits

Texas comes into the game ranked No. 4 nationally in average scoring margin, coming out 25.1 points better than its opponents when adding up all the points this season.

Kentucky enters this weekend ranked 80th in FBS by averaging 1.8 points worse than its competition in 2024.

Those margins have diverged over the last three games.

Kentucky has worsened to being 17.3 points worse than its opponents over that time, while Texas has fared 15 points better than the competition in that span.

And there’s a stark difference between these teams considering the venue.

Texas has been 31.3 points better than its opponents when playing games at home this season, while Kentucky has fared 11.7 points worse than the competition when on the road.

Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models also favor the Longhorns by a wide margin against UK.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas is the big FPI favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the overwhelming 94.7 percent of the computer’s latest simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Kentucky as the presumptive winner in the remaining 5.3 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Texas is projected to be 25.5 points better than Kentucky on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How to watch Kentucky vs. Texas

When: Sat., Nov. 23
Where: Austin, Tex.

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 2:30 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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