Texas vs. Michigan score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict as the Texas Longhorns and Michigan Wolverines meet in this huge Week 2 college football game as the SEC and Big Ten face off at the Big House.

What to expect as the Texas Longhorns visit the Michigan Wolverines in this mega college football game with the SEC and Big Ten facing off in Week 2. / Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK

The marquee matchup on the Week 2 college football schedule finds the defending national champion No. 10 ranked Michigan Wolverines hosting the No. 3 Texas Longhorns in the Big House in college football's Week 2 game on Saturday.

The quarterback battle seems to fall definitively in the Longhorns' favor. Quinn Ewers had three touchdowns and covered 260 yards and sophomore Arch Manning scored once in the air and again on the ground as Texas handled Colorado State in a 52-0 decision last week.

Davis Warren had 118 yards with a touchdown and an interception for the Wolverines in a closely-fought opener against Fresno State, averaging 4.7 yards per pass.

But it was Michigan's defense, returning key contributors, that pulled out the win as cornerback Will Johnson scored an 86-yard pick-six to secure the Week 1 victory.

What can we expect in the matchup? Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Michigan and Texas compare in this Week 2 game.

Texas vs. Michigan prediction

The simulations currently favor the Longhorns to take care of business in this road opener.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Michigan by a projected score of 28 to 21 and to win the game by a projected 6.5 points.

The model gives the Longhorns a 66 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Point spread

Texas is a 7.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 42.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Texas at -310 and for Michigan at +245.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Michigan +7.5
• Texas to win -310
• Bet over 49.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also favor the SEC challengers to take down the Wolverines.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas is projected to win the game in 74.1 percent of the computer's simulations, while Michigan came out the winner in the remaining 25.9 percent of sims.

The computers forecast that Texas will be 11.9 points better than Michigan on the same field in both teams' current composition, enough to cover this line.

Michigan will win 8.3 games this season, according to the computer's calculations, and sits fourth among Big Ten teams with a 7.3 percent chance to win the conference championship.

Texas is expected to win 10.5 games this year on the index, which names it the second-best favorite with a 27 percent likelihood to win the SEC championship.

Texas vs. Michigan game time, schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 7
Time: 12 p.m. ET, 11 a.m. CT
TV: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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