Texas vs. Mississippi State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict as Texas and Mississippi State meet in this Week 5 college football game and the SEC debut for the Longhorns.

Texas vs. Mississippi State score prediction / Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

Texas is the No. 1 team in the country and is making its SEC debut this weekend against Mississippi State in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

But there’s still some intrigue around the quarterback position, as Arch Manning appears to be poised to start in place of the injured Quinn Ewers, but Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian left the window open for Ewers to make his return in this game.

There’s no such confusion for the Bulldogs (1-3, 0-1 SEC), as starting quarterback Blake Shapen was lost for the season after an injury to his shoulder in a loss to Florida last week.

What can we expect in the matchup as the Longhorns play their first SEC game?

Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Texas and Mississippi State compare heading into this historic game on the Forty Acres.

Texas vs. Mississippi State score prediction

As expected, the simulations favor the Longhorns against the overmatched Bulldogs.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Mississippi State by a projected score of 47 to 11 and to win the game by an expected 35.6 points.

The model gives the Longhorns a 99 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Point spread

Texas is a 37.5 point favorite against Mississippi State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel listed the total at 61.5 points for the game.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Mississippi State +37.5
• Bet under 61.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models forecast the Longhorns will easily win the game this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas is projected to win the game in the overwhelming majority 98.1 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Mississippi State as the expected winner in the remaining 1.9 percent of sims.

Texas is projected to be 35.2 points better than Mississippi State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

Texas will win 11.5 games this season and is first among SEC teams with a 92.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model says Mississippi State will win 2.7 games and place last in the SEC with a 0.3 percent chance to become bowl eligible this season.

How to watch Texas vs. Mississippi State

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 3:15 p.m. Central
TV: SEC Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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