Texas vs. Oklahoma football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Texas vs. Oklahoma by the football model that picks winners.

Texas vs. Oklahoma football prediction / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

For the first time, the Red River Shootout is an SEC conference matchup, as No. 1 Texas and No. 18 Oklahoma renew one of college football’s most intense rivalries. Let’s check in with the updated prediction for the game from an expert football model that picks winners.

Texas is one of 12 undefeated teams and sits at 1-0 in SEC play with Arch Manning starting the last two games, but Quinn Ewers should return to action this week after dealing with an abdominal injury.

Oklahoma is 1-1 in SEC games, taking a 10-point loss at home to Tennessee that resulted in a quarterback change, and it relied on some timely defense to get past Auburn two weeks ago.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Texas vs. Oklahoma predictions

So far, the models are siding pretty strongly with the Longhorns over the Sooners.

Texas is projected to win the game in an overwhelming 85.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations, or in 17,040 of its latest 20,000 predictions.

That leaves Oklahoma as the expected winner in 14.8 percent of sims, or 2,960 projections.

Texas is projected to be 15.8 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Longhorns to cover the spread.

That’s because Texas is a 14.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -700 and for Oklahoma at +500 to win outright.

What the bettors say

Most bettors predict the Sooners will make this a game against the Longhorns, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A majority of bets -- 58 percent -- project that Oklahoma will either beat Texas in an upset, or keep the game within the point spread.

The other 42 percent of wagers expect Texas will win the game and cover the spread.

The game’s implied score suggests a win for the Longhorns.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Texas will defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 32 to 18 in the game.

Texas is first among SEC teams with a 91.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Oklahoma a win total projection of 7.2 games and a 13.9 percent shot at the playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (52)
2. Ohio State (9)
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. Tennessee
9. Ole Miss
10. Clemson
T-11. Iowa State/Notre Dame
13. LSU
14. BYU
15. Texas A&M
16. Utah
17. Boise State
T-18. Kansas State/Indiana/Oklahoma
21. Missouri
22. Pittsburgh
23. Illinois
24. Michigan
25. SMU

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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