Texas vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for the Red River Shootout as Texas and Oklahoma meet in this Week 7 college football classic.

Texas vs. Oklahoma score prediction / Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

One of college football’s premier rivalry games kicks off as an SEC conference matchup for the first time ever, as No. 1 Texas and No. 18 Oklahoma square off in the Red River Shootout. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that picks winners.

Texas is the No. 1 team in the country for this game for the first time since 1984, and should get quarterback Quinn Ewers under center again after he missed two-plus games with an abdominal injury, although budding star Arch Manning is waiting in the wings just in case.

Oklahoma is 1-1 in SEC play after a loss to Tennessee at home and a road victory against Auburn that included some timely defense, which the team may need again as its offense is struggling despite a change at quarterback, ranking 118th in passing output and 100th in rushing production.

What do the analytics suggest for the Red River Rivalry game this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Texas and Oklahoma compare in this Week 7 college football game.

Texas vs. Oklahoma score prediction

So far, the models are giving a decided edge to the Longhorns over the Sooners.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 33 to 19 and will win the game by an expected 14 point margin.

The model gives the Longhorns a strong 82 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 154-141-3 against the spread with a 52.2 win percentage.

Texas vs. Oklahoma odds, picks

Texas is a 14.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas at -650 and for Oklahoma at +475 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Oklahoma +14.5
• Texas to win -650
• Bet over 48.5 points

Most bettors have more confidence in the Sooners in this rivalry game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A plurality of bets -- 59 percent -- predict that Oklahoma will either win the game in an upset, or keep the score within the line.

The other 41 percent of wagers expect Texas will win the game and cover the spread.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Longhorns over the Sooners this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas is projected to win outright in the majority 85.1 percent of the FPI computer’s most recent simulations for the game.

That leaves Oklahoma as the expected winner in the remaining 14.9 percent of sims.

Texas is projected to be 15.8 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction: What the analytics say

Texas is first among SEC teams with a 91.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Oklahoma a win total projection of 7.2 games and a 14 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.

How to watch Texas vs. Oklahoma

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

More ... Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins, and why?

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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