Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Texas and Oklahoma square off in the Red River Shootout this weekend, with our updated prediction for this classic college football rivalry game.

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners Prediction / Ricardo B. Brazziell-Imagn Images

For the 120th time, the Red River Shootout finds Texas and Oklahoma at each other’s throats. But for the first time ever, this goes on the books as an SEC game. Here’s what you should watch for as the Longhorns and Sooners meet up, with our updated prediction for the game.

For the first time in 40 seasons, Texas comes into the Cotton Bowl as the No. 1 team, one of a dozen teams in the country yet to lose a game, sitting at 5-0 overall and hoping to get its starting quarterback under center again after dealing with an injury.

Oklahoma is 1-1 in SEC play after a loss to Tennessee and a victory against Auburn behind some defensive heroics as the team’s freshman quarterback still finds his way in the offense.

What can we expect as the Sooners and Longhorns meet in this classic rivalry?

Here’s what you should watch for as Texas and Oklahoma meet in this Week 7 college football matchup, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction: What to watch

1. At the line. Key to OU’s offensive struggles has been its subpar protection up front, ranking just 110th in FBS with 14 sacks allowed and 100th nationally in tackles for loss surrendered with 32, and are permitting 6.5 TFLs per game. Despite outgoing personnel from last year, Texas can still generate decent pressure, especially from freshman edge rusher Colin Simmons, who leads the team with 4 sacks.

2. Red zone. It was a key moment in last year’s Red River game, as the Sooners held the Longhorns out of the end zone in four tries inside the 5-yard line. But that Texas team was horrid in the red area last season. This time around, it’s 24 of 27 inside the 20, while Oklahoma is allowing opponents to score from close range on 80 percent of chances.

3. The return. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers will start Saturday’s game after missing the last 2 outings with an abdominal injury, marking the second time that Ewers has made a return from injury in time for the Oklahoma game in the last 3 years.

The first time? Texas won 49-0. This Sooner defense won’t be that generous, but Ewers has already built a solid rapport with this group of receivers, and his presence is very stabilizing for the offense as it faces the toughest test of its season.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models expect the Longhorns will get the better of the Sooners this time around.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas is projected to win outright in the overwhelming 85.1 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Oklahoma as the expected winner in the remaining 14.9 percent of sims.

Texas is projected to be 15.8 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Texas is a 14.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 48.5 points for the game.

And it listed the moneyline odds for Texas at -650 and for Oklahoma at +475 to win outright.

Most bettors expect the Sooners will make this a game against the Longhorns, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A plurality of bets -- 59 percent of them -- predict that Oklahoma will either win the game in an upset or keep things within 2 touchdowns.

The other 41 percent of wagers expect that Texas will win the game and cover the spread.

Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins?

It’s a cliche to say the “stats don’t matter” in games like this, but the truth is the stats really don’t matter too much in this rivalry game. 

The intensity of the matchup, the history behind it, and the feelings inside the Cotton Bowl, in the stands and on the field, really do give a kind of crazed inspiration to players or teams who may, on paper, be overmatched.

It’s those human factors that can come into play more so than any strategic or schematic advantages a team may have or not have.

The fact of Oklahoma’s superb front seven should be able to bother Ewers enough to throw the Longhorns’ offense off schedule early to keep it close, and it’s that side of the ball for OU that keeps us from taking the points for Texas here.

But the Sooners’ offense just isn’t there right now. Whatever spark freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins could theoretically give the unit with his mobility, the injury bug having its way with OU’s skill players has been unforgiving, a long list of affected players that now includes wide receiver Deion Burks, and the cupboards are pretty bare.

Combine with that the fact of Oklahoma’s dismal pass protection and the Longhorns’ decided advantage when it comes to moving the ball, and this should ultimately go one way.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Texas wins 36-23
• Doesn’t cover the spread
• And hits the over

How to watch Texas vs. Oklahoma

When: Sat., Oct. 12
Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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