Texas vs. Texas A&M football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert prediction for Texas vs. Texas A&M from an analytical football model that simulates games.

Texas vs. Texas A&M football prediction 2024 / Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

One of college football’s greatest rivalries returns after more than a decade as Texas and Texas A&M reunite, and with plenty on the line. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that simulates games.

Texas improved to 10-1 with a big win over Kentucky, and has just one loss against Georgia that it has a chance to avenge in the SEC Championship Game, if it wins this regular season finale.

Likewise for Texas A&M, which can earn a spot in Atlanta against the Bulldogs with a win here, but comes in off a disappointing four-overtime loss at Auburn last weekend and fell to 8-3.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Texas vs. Texas A&M predictions

As expected, the Longhorns are out in front of the Aggies in the latest projections for this game.

Texas is the big favorite on the road, coming out ahead in 77.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Texas A&M as the presumptive winner in the remaining 22.7 percent of sims.

In total, the Longhorns come out on top in 15,460 of the index’s calculations of the matchup, while the Aggies edged out Texas in the other 4,540 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Texas is projected to be 10.9 points better than Texas A&M on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Longhorns to cover the spread in this game.

That’s because Texas is a 5.5 point favorite against Texas A&M, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

The book set the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Texas at -225 and for Texas A&M at +184 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Longhorns will take care of the Aggies on the road, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas is getting 63 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 37 percent of wagers project Texas A&M will either win outright in an upset or keep the game under a touchdown margin in a loss.

Texas vs. Texas A&M future projections

Texas is fourth nationally and first among SEC teams with a 97 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Aggies a meager 6.2 percent chance to make the playoff and a win total projection of 8.3 games, implying the index doesn’t think A&M will win again in 2024.

Texas is second in the country with a 21.3 percent chance to win the national championship, according to the models.

Ohio State is first nationally at 22.2 percent to win the title.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch Texas vs. Texas A&M

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: College Station, Tex.

Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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