Texas vs. UTSA picks, predictions, 2024 college football projections for Week 3 games

Expert picks and predictions for Texas vs. UTSA in this Week 3 college football game.

Texas Longhorns vs. UTSA Roadrunners picks, predictions / Aaron Meullion-Imagn Images

Returning home to the Forty Acres after securing a landmark road victory against the defending national champions, the now-No. 2 ranked Texas Longhorns kick off against the UTSA Roadrunners in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

Texas jumped Ohio State in the polls to sit just behind Georgia this week after handing a 19-point beat-down to Michigan at the Big House, firmly securing the reputation of quarterback Quinn Ewers and this offense leading into the program's SEC debut.

That's still two weeks off, as the Longhorns get a shot at a Group of Five team that was talked about during the preseason as possible College Football Playoff material.

That is, before UTSA lost by 39 to North Texas last weekend, exposing some real weaknesses on offense after the departure of quarterback Frank Harris.

But the Roadrunners have been successful as of late, winning at least nine games in each of the last three seasons and winning two Conference USA championships under head coach Jeff Traylor.

Looking ahead to this week's matchup, let's check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer projection model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Texas vs. UTSA picks, predictions

As expected, the models are strongly in favor of the home team, as the Longhorns are projected to win the game in the overwhelming 98.8 percent of the computer's updated simulations.

That leaves the Roadrunners as the projected victors in the matchup in the remaining 1.2 percent of sims.

The index projects Texas will be 39.8 points better than UTSA on the same field in both teams' current composition, enough to cover this spread.

Texas is a 35.5 point favorite against UTSA, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 55.5 points for the game.

UTSA ranks seventh in its conference with a 0.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and is projected to win 5.8 games, according to the computer's prediction.

Texas will win 11.3 games this season and sits in first place among SEC teams with a 91 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff, getting a boost after the win at Michigan.

Texas vs. UTSA game time, schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 14
Time: 6 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Georgia (54)
2. Texas (4)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Ole Miss
6. Missouri
7. Tennessee
8. Penn State
9. Oregon
10. Miami
11. USC
12. Utah
13. Oklahoma State
14. Kansas State
15. Oklahoma
16. LSU
17. Michigan
18. Notre Dame
19. Louisville
20. Arizona
21. Iowa State
22. Clemson
23. Nebraska
24. Boston College
25. Northern Illinois

Details ... Week 3 AP top 25 rankings

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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