Texas vs. Vanderbilt score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Texas vs. Vanderbilt in this Week 9 college football game from an expert model that picks winners.

Texas vs. Vanderbilt score prediction / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

A new-look SEC football matchup kicks off from Music City this weekend as newly-ranked No. 25 Vanderbilt plays host to No. 5 Texas in college football’s Week 9 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the updated prediction for the game from an expert model that picks winners and projects scores.

Texas is coming off its first loss of the season and as SEC members after falling to Georgia at home and now head into a road date against a Vandy team that’s already made history after taking down then-No. 1 Alabama a few weeks ago.

Vanderbilt is a surprising 2-1 in SEC play in part by keeping the ball away from opponents, ranking first in the SEC in time of possession and in third down conversions.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Longhorns and Commodores meet in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Texas and Vanderbilt compare in this Week 9 college football game.

Texas vs. Vanderbilt score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the Longhorns over the resurgent ‘Dores.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Vanderbilt by a projected score of 38 to 19 and to win the game by an expected margin of 19.8 points.

The model gives the Longhorns a strong 89 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Texas vs. Vanderbilt picks, odds

Texas is an 18.5 point favorite against Vanderbilt, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Texas at -1000 and for Vanderbilt at +600 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Texas -18.5
• Longhorns to win -1000
• Bet over 51.5 points

A slight majority of bettors expect the Commodores to give the Longhorns a game this week, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

Vanderbilt is getting 56 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final score within the generous line.

The other 44 percent of wagers project Texas will win the game and cover the big spread.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models expect the Longhorns will handle the Commodores in this matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Texas is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 90.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Vanderbilt as the expected winner in 9.4 percent of sims.

Texas is projected to be 20.3 points better than Vanderbilt on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Texas vs. Vanderbilt future predictions

Texas is second among SEC teams with a 78.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Longhorns a win total prediction of 10.7 games this season.

The index projects that Vanderbilt has a 0.5 percent chance to make the 12-team playoff when simulating its season going forward.

And it projects the ‘Dores will win 6.2 games in 2024.

How to watch Texas vs. Vanderbilt

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 3:15 p.m. Central
TV: SEC Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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