Tulane vs. Army prediction for AAC Championship Game: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for Tulane vs. Army in the AAC Championship Game from a football model that simulates games.

Tulane vs. Army 2024 AAC Championship Game prediction, pick / Danny Wild-Imagn Images

Army and Tulane square off in the 2024 AAC Championship Game on Friday night with the winner hoping for some chaos to get back into the College Football Playoff picture. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert football model that simulates games.

At one point, Army was a 9-0 football team with playoff ambitions, but an ugly loss to Notre Dame ended that perfect record and postseason chance, but it can still win 11 games for the second time ever.

Likewise, Tulane appeared to play itself into playoff consideration, but an upset loss to Memphis on Thanksgiving cost the program a chance to host this game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Tulane vs. Army predictions

The models foresee a close game at West Point, but with the Green Wave emerging as a narrow favorite against the Black Knights.

Tulane is a decent favorite on the road, coming out ahead in the majority 66.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Army as the expected winner in the remaining 33.3 percent of sims.

In total, the Green Wave comes out on top in 13,340 of the index’s calculations for the matchup, while the Black Knights edge out Tulane in the other 6,660 predictions.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Tulane is projected to be 6.1 points better than Army on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Green Wave to cover a narrow line against the Black Knights.

That’s because Tulane is a 5.5 point favorite against Army, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the AAC title game.

FanDuel set the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Tulane at -220 and for Army at +180 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A narrow majority of bettors expect the Black Knights to make this a game against the Green Wave, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the matchup.

Army is getting 54 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin under 6 points in a loss.

The other 46 percent of wagers project Tulane will win the game and cover the point spread.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 15

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
18. BYU
19. Missouri
20. UNLV
21. Illinois
22. Syracuse
23. Colorado
24. Army
25. Memphis

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 SMU
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Penn State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Alabama at
No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Georgia
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First two out: Miami, Ole Miss

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How to watch Tulane vs. Army

When: Fri., Dec. 6
Where: West Point, N.Y.

Time: 8 p.m. ET | 7 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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