Tulane Green Wave vs. Army Black Knights prediction: Who wins, and why?

What you should watch for Tulane vs. Army in the 2024 AAC Championship Game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Tulane vs. Army prediction for the 2024 AAC Championship Game / Chuck Cook-Imagn Images

Here’s what you should watch for as Army welcomes Tulane in the 2024 AAC Championship Game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Once upon a time, Army was an undefeated 9-0 football team with some nascent College Football Playoff ambitions, but an ugly loss to Notre Dame derailed those admittedly slim hopes, but it still has a chance to win an AAC title in its first season in the conference.

Tulane also had playoff hopes as a Group of Five contender, nearly taking out Oklahoma and Kansas State on the road, and won eight straight games, but an upset loss to AAC rival Memphis on Thanksgiving night curtailed the Green Wave’s postseason aspirations.

What can we expect as the Black Knights welcome the Green Wave in historic West Point?

Here’s what you should watch for as Army and Tulane square off in the 2024 AAC Championship Game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Tulane vs. Army prediction: What to watch for

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How can Army win the game

It’s not a state secret as to what Army’s recipe for success on offense has been this season.

Ground and pound is the name of the game for the Black Knights, who rank No. 1 nationally in rushing output this year, averaging 312.5 yards per game from their backs.

Army quarterback Bryson Daily leads the way, with 1,348 rushing yards himself, tops among a rotation that is fourth in FBS with 5.4 yards per carry.

Daily’s 25 rushing touchdowns are tied for the most in AAC history and he’s gone for over 100 yards in 9 straight games.

Tulane is fourth in the AAC in rushing defense and is second allowing 18.4 points per game.

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How can Tulane win the game

When taking every phase of the game into consideration, Tulane is the favorite against Army given its superior overall defense.

The unit ranks No. 19 nationally in overall production and its defensive line is a particular point of pride, ranking fourth in FBS in pass rush efficiency, according to Pro Football Focus.

That said, Tulane still boasts one of the nation’s most prolific offenses.

It ranks No. 6 among 134 FBS teams with 429.3 total yards per game of overall production and has averaged just over 39 points per game this season.

Key to that success is lead back Makhi Hughes, who comes in at No. 12 among backs with 1,306 rushing yards this season and has eclipsed 100 yards in 7 games this season.

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Who is favored?

Tulane is a 5.5 point favorite against Army, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Tulane at -205 and for Army at +168 to win outright.

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Army vs. Tulane prediction: Who wins?

Army and Tulane have both demonstrated that they can put up some serious points when given the opportunity, but each also present credible defensive challenges to the other team, as well.

Tulane’s expert pass defense -- which ranks No. 21 nationally this season -- won’t be pressured by the Black Knights’ limited vertical attack, and the Green Wave should have a size advantage when comparing bodies on both lines of scrimmage.

That’s in addition to an athleticism edge with some solid perimeter defenders who can close down any escape routes to the outside of the formation and limit Army to moderate gains.

From there, Tulane has the variety and speed to blow open a few holes in Army’s coverage.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Tulane wins 27-17
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More ... Tulane vs. Army score prediction by expert model

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How to watch the AAC Championship Game

When: Fri., Dec. 6
Where: West Point, N.Y.

Time: 8 p.m. ET | 7 p.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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