Tulane vs. Memphis football prediction: What the analytics say

An expert prediction for Tulane vs. Memphis by an analytical football model that simulates games.

Tulane vs. Memphis football prediction 2024 / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

A notable regular season finale in the AAC finds Tulane hosting Memphis on Thanksgiving night. Here’s the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that simulates games.

Tulane has clinched a spot in the AAC Championship Game against Army that it hopes will give it some credibility in the eyes of the College Football Playoff selection committee, but a playoff berth seems unlikely even if the Green Wave should win both these games.

Memphis has a shot to win double-digit games in consecutive seasons for the first time ever and has a chance to play spoiler for its conference rival in this game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Tulane vs. Memphis prediction

As expected, the models favor the Green Wave over the Tigers, and by a surprising margin.

Tulane is the big favorite at home, coming out ahead in 86.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Memphis as the expected winner in the remaining 13.4 percent of sims.

In total, the Green Wave comes out on top in 17,320 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Tigers edge out Tulane in the other 2,680 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Tulane is projected to be 16.4 points better than Memphis on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Green Wave to cover the big point spread.

That’s because Tulane is a 13.5 point favorite against Memphis, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

The book lists the total at 55.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Tulane at -530 and for Memphis at +390 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A plurality of bettors expect the Tigers will keep things closer against the Green Wave, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Memphis is getting 67 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin under two touchdowns in a loss.

The other 33 percent of wagers project Tulane will win and cover the point spread.

Tulane vs. Memphis future projections

Tulane notably is among the top dozen teams nationally with a 31 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

But the Green Wave is still behind Boise State, the favorite among Group of Five teams not only with the selection committee, but on the Football Power Index, as well.

FPI lists the Broncos as having a 69 percent chance to make the playoff and with a 70 percent chance to win the Mountain West title, a virtual CFP clinching situation for the team.

Tulane is rooting for Boise State to lose somewhere along the way while needing to win its final two games, and it would help if it were by impressive margins.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch Memphis vs. Tulane

When: Thurs., Nov. 28
Where: New Orleans, La.

Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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