Tulane vs. Memphis score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Tulane vs. Memphis by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Tulane vs. Memphis score prediction 2024 / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The regular season finale in the AAC finds Tulane playing host to Memphis in a battle of two of the conference’s top four teams on Thanksgiving. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Tulane has clinched a place in the AAC Championship Game against Army, and hopes a good showing in this game and that one could sway the selection committee, provided there are some other upsets around the country, especially with Boise State as the consensus Group of Five favorite.

Memphis has a shot at winning double-digit games in consecutive seasons for the first time in program history and play a little spoiler for their conference rivals, working behind an offense that is top 25 nationally in scoring with more than five touchdowns per game on average.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Green Wave and Tigers get together on Turkey Day?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Tulane and Memphis compare in this Week 14 college football game.

Tulane vs. Memphis score prediction

It appears the models are siding with the Green Wave to hold serve at home against the Tigers, but by a very narrow margin by the latest projections.

SP+ predicts that Tulane will defeat Memphis by a projected score of 33 to 27 and to win the game by an expected margin of 6.4 points.

The model gives the Green Wave a 66 percent chance of outright victory over the Tigers in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 349-321-8 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 34-28 (54.8%) last weekend.

Tulane vs. Memphis odds, how to pick the game

Tulane is a 13.5 point favorite against Memphis, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for this week’s game.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the matchup (Over -110, Under -110).

And it set the moneyline odds for Tulane at -490 and for Memphis at +365 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Memphis +13.5
• Tulane to win -490
• Bet over 54.5 points

A plurality of bettors expect the Tigers will keep things closer against the Green Wave, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Memphis is getting 67 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin under two touchdowns in a loss.

The other 33 percent of wagers project Tulane will win and cover the point spread.

Computer prediction

In addition to the SP+ model, most other analytical football systems also favor the Green Wave at home against the Tigers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tulane is the big favorite at home, coming out ahead in 86.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Memphis as the expected winner in the remaining 13.4 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Tulane is projected to be 16.4 points better than Memphis on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Tulane vs. Memphis prediction: What the analytics say

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch Memphis vs. Tulane

When: Thurs., Nov. 28
Where: New Orleans, La.

Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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