Tulane vs. Navy football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Tulane vs. Navy in this Week 12 college football game from an analytical model that simulates games.

Tulane vs. Navy football prediction / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Two of the AAC’s top three teams face off this weekend as No. 25 Tulane hits the road against Navy. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical football model that simulates games.

Navy was undefeated through six games before losing its next two and sits at 5-1 in AAC play and in third place in the conference, but almost certainly out of the playoff picture.

Tulane is second in the AAC standings with a perfect 6-0 in conference games and ranking No. 6 nationally in scoring offense, with 41 points per game on average.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Tulane vs. Navy predictions

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Green Wave against the Midshipmen.

Tulane has emerged as the favorite on the road, coming out ahead in the majority 73.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Navy as the presumptive winner in the remaining 26.2 percent of sims.

In total, the Green Wave came out ahead in 14,760 of the index’s calculations of the game, while the Midshipmen edged out Tulane in the other 5,240 predictions.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Tulane is projected to be 11.5 points better than Navy on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Green Wave to cover the spread against the Midshipmen.

That’s because Tulane is a 6.5 point favorite against Navy, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the game (Over -118, Under -104).

And it set the moneyline odds for Tulane at -250 and for Navy at +202 to win outright.

What the bettors say

A slight majority of bettors expect the Green Wave to take out the Midshipmen by a decent margin, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Tulane is getting 51 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 49 percent of wagers project Navy will either win the game outright in an upset, or will keep the final margin under a touchdown in a loss.

Tulane vs. Navy future projections

Tulane is first among AAC teams with a 15.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Green Wave a win total projection of 10.2 games this season.

Navy isn’t far behind in those predictions, though.

The index forecasts the Midshipmen will win 8.3 games in ‘24.

But their playoff chances are effectively finished, with a 1.7 percent chance to make the 12-team format, according to the projections.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. BYU
7. Tennessee
8. Notre Dame
9. Miami
10. Alabama
11. Ole Miss
12. Georgia
13. Boise State
14. SMU
15. Texas A&M
16. Kansas State
17. Colorado
18. Washington State
19. Louisville
20. Clemson
21. South Carolina
22. LSU
23. Missouri
24. Army
25. Tulane

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How to watch Tulane vs. Navy

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN2 network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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