Tulane vs. Navy prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Tulane and Navy meet in this AAC clash, with our updated prediction for the game.

Tulane vs. Navy Prediction / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

What you need to watch for as Tulane and Navy meet in this clash of AAC hopefuls with plenty on the line regarding the postseason, with our updated prediction for the game.

Tulane is a perfect 6-0 in conference play this season, not losing a game since dropping two straight against Power Four competition by a combined 22 points, and comes into this game ranked No. 6 nationally with 41 points per game on average.

Navy was undefeated through 6 games but a disastrous loss to Notre Dame and another to Rice right after that dropped the team to third place in the AAC standings, but still packing a punch on the ground and with a path to a decent postseason showing.

What can we expect as the Midshipmen host the Green Wave this weekend?

Here’s what you should watch for as Tulane and Navy meet in this AAC clash, along with our updated prediction for the game.

Tulane vs. Navy prediction: What to watch

1. What’s on the line? For Tulane, a win would clinch a spot in the AAC Championship Game, and greater consideration for the College Football Playoff if it can run the table, but that involves a matchup against league leader Army, which already clinched, but the Wave also need some help from Boise State, the current Group of Five darling in the committee room.

2. On the ground. Although Navy is more balanced on offense these days, it’s still the nation’s 5th best rushing attack behind a superb run-blocking line. Tulane is a mixed bag in rush defense, solid overall allowing under 115 yards per game, but quite generous on a per carry basis, surrendering 5.4 yards per touch, ranking just 104th nationally.

3. Ditto for the Wave. Tulane back Makhi Hughes is fourth in rushing yards nationally this year and remains the key piece in this offense, and he could exploit a Navy run defense that has proven vulnerable against good backs, ranking 80th in FBS and allowing 200-plus rushing yards in 4 games.

What the analytics say

Most football computer prediction models are siding with the Green Wave against the Midshipmen.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tulane comes out ahead in a solid majority 74 percent of the computer simulations of the game.

The other 26 percent of sims forecast a Midshipmen victory in an upset.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Tulane is projected to be 11.4 points better than Navy on the same field, according to the model's latest forecast for the matchup.

More ... Tulane vs. Navy prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

Tulane is a 6.5 point favorite against Navy, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And it set the moneyline odds for Tulane at -255 and for Navy at +205 to win outright.

Tulane vs. Navy prediction: Who wins?

Both these offenses match up fairly evenly behind some capable backs and each wants to run down the game clock and limit possessions to keep the other offense from doing the same.

Tulane has excelled at this strategy during its win streak, and at converting those drives into points, scoring on 90 percent of its red zone chances and ranking third nationally with 35 touchdowns from inside the opponents’ 20-yard line.

Navy is playing more balanced on offense with quarterback Blake Horvath at the helm, eclipsing 100 yards passing in 7 of his 9 starts while boasting a solid touchdown-interception ratio of 11 to 4.

But the Midshipmen have struggled with turnovers on offense, sitting at minus-6 with 8 giveaways in their two losses this season.

Tulane boasts an efficient passing attack to buttress its strong ground game, as Darian Mensah owns a 65.6 percent completion mark while dealing to some very competent targets and working behind a line that has displayed some expert pass blocking tendencies.

With the offenses playing a similar brand of football, the difference-maker in this matchup should be on the defensive side, and Tulane has shown it can control the line of scrimmage and force teams into throwing situations that they want to avoid.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Tulane wins 31-23
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... Tulane vs. Navy score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Tulane vs. Navy

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ESPN2 network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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