Tulane vs. Navy score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Tulane vs. Navy in this Week 12 college football game by an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Tulane vs. Navy score prediction / Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Two of the three highest-ranked teams in the AAC standings square off this weekend as No. 25 Tulane hits the road against Navy on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Navy was a perfect 6-0 before losing its next two and sits at 5-1 in AAC play and in third place in the conference, but almost certainly out of the playoff picture after those losses.

Tulane is second in the AAC with a perfect 6-0 mark in conference and ranking No. 6 nationally in scoring offense, with 41 points per game on average, and comes into this game with a shot to clinch a spot in the AAC title game.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Midshipmen and Green Wave meet in this AAC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how Tulane and Navy compare in this Week 12 college football game.

Tulane vs. Navy score prediction

So far, the models are siding with the Green Wave to take down the Midshipmen on the road.

SP+ predicts that Tulane will defeat Navy by a projected score of 30 to 26 and to win the game by an expected margin of 4.1 points in the process.

The model gives the Green Wave a 60 percent chance to win outright over the Midshipmen.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread with a 52.6 win percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.

Tulane vs. Navy odds, how to pick the game

Tulane is a 6.5 point favorite against Navy, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it set the moneyline odds for Tulane at -250 and for Navy at +202 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Navy +6.5
• Tulane to win -250
• Bet over 52.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a minority of bettors who are taking the Green Wave over the Midshipmen, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Tulane is getting 51 percent of bets to win the game by a touchdown and cover the point spread.

The other 49 percent of wagers project Navy will either win outright in the upset, or will keep the final margin under a touchdown in a loss.

Tulane vs. Navy splits

Tulane is averaging 19 points more than its opponents this season, ranking 12th nationally in that category when adding up all the points in the wins and losses.

Navy is top 20 in FBS by averaging out 11.6 points better than the competition in 2024.

Those margins have diverged wildly over the last three games, however.

Tulane has been 28.3 points better than its opponents over that span, helped in part by a dominant 52-6 victory over Temple last time out.

Navy has averaged 10 points worse than the competition in that time after losing two straight games by 47 combined points.

Both teams have been dominant this season when considering the venue.

Navy has been 24.3 points better than opponents when playing at home this year, while Tulane has fared 16.6 points better than other teams when on the road.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical models also favor the Green Wave over the Midshipmen in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tulane is the dominant favorite on the road, coming out ahead in the majority 73.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Navy as the presumptive winner in the remaining 26.2 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Tulane is projected to be 11.5 points better than Navy on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Tulane vs. Navy prediction: What the analytics say

Tulane vs. Navy future projections

Tulane is first among AAC teams with a 15.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Green Wave a win total projection of 10.2 games this season.

Navy isn’t far behind in those predictions, though.

The index forecasts the Midshipmen will win 8.3 games in ‘24.

But their playoff chances are effectively finished, with a 1.7 percent chance to make the 12-team format, according to the projections.

How to watch Tulane vs. Navy

When: Sat., Nov. 16
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ESPN2 network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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