USC Trojans vs. LSU Tigers Prediction: Who Wins, and Why

What to expect as LSU and USC meet in this Week 1 college football game, with our updated prediction for what is now an SEC vs. Big Ten matchup.

USC Trojans vs. LSU Tigers Prediction, Preview / Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

LSU and USC might seem far apart, both in mileage and culture, but these teams share notable similarities that should become apparent when they meet in Las Vegas in college football's Week 1 action on Sunday night.

Both schools debut new coordinators to repair defensive units that were among the worst in college football a year ago: Blake Baker steps in for LSU from Missouri, while D'Anton Lynn hopes to revive USC's unit after coaching UCLA's defense to a No. 10 national ranking last season.

Also at the quarterback position: each of these schools will debut new signal callers low on experience but high on potential, and both succeeding Heisman Trophy winners who turned pro.

Garrett Nussmeier steps in for Jayden Daniels and Miller Moss for No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams, both putting up great numbers in bowl game victories for their respective teams and hoping that success translates as they inherit the QB1 roles for good.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here's what you should watch for as LSU and USC meet in Las Vegas, with our updated game prediction.

LSU vs. USC prediction, preview

How to watch

When: Sun., Sept. 1
Time: 6:30 p.m. CT, 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: ABC network

USC vs. LSU game odds

Lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

LSU: -4.5 (-105)
USC: +4.5 (-115)

LSU to win: -182
USC to win: +150

Over 65.5 points (-110)
Under 65.5 points (-110)

FPI picks: LSU 54.7% | USC 45.3%

What to watch for

1. Battle at the line. LSU returns four starters of an offensive line that will be strong again protecting Nussmeier and opening lanes for a promising group of backs against a Trojans front seven that has lacked for depth and skill, has been out of place, and has missed way too many tackles the last two seasons. Early momentum here could demoralize USC's first line of defense.

2. Targeting LSU's back seven. USC should protect Moss well enough for him to build confidence with a battery of short and intermediate throws to some very capable receivers, but with Harold Perkins roaming center field for LSU, the Trojans want to test the Tigers' secondary early and often. That unit ranked 121st nationally in production last season and this is a good chance to get some yards out of it while it's still unproven.

3. Red zone and third down. A big part of these defenses' struggles a year ago was their performance in scoring position. USC was 115th, allowing teams to score 91 percent of the time, while LSU was 125th in that category, letting teams put on points on 92.3 percent of drives inside the 20.

Defending the third down, USC was 107th in the country, letting opponents move the chains on 43 percent of chances, while LSU let the opposition convert on 46 percent of opportunities, ranking 120th nationally.

LSU vs. USC prediction

Good skill players and promising quarterbacks should more or less equalize the offensive potential for each of these teams, especially given both defenses will be generous in leaving passing lanes open in the deeper portion of the field from time to time.

LSU's offensive line should be the difference. Those four returning starters will form a secure pocket from which Nussmeier will have more time and room to develop his timing with a cast of able receivers, while the Tigers build some momentum running the ball behind that protection.

College Football HQ picks ...

• LSU wins 38-31
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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