USC Trojans vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

What to expect as the USC Trojans and Michigan Wolverines meet in this Week 4 college football game, with our updated prediction.

USC Trojans vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction / Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK

A new-look Big Ten game brought to us by conference realignment finds USC on the road against Michigan in an early league battle as college football’s Week 4 action gets underway on Saturday. Here’s what you should know about the game, with our updated prediction.

We usually had to wait for a Rose Bowl to see USC and Michigan on the same field, but after a historic round of conference realignment that forever re-drew college football’s national boundaries, this is now a plain old Big Ten regular season matchup.

And it’s one that finds Michigan already under plenty of pressure. The defending national champions already dropped a 19-point decision at the Big House to now-No. 1 Texas, and comes in at 2-1 in danger of falling to .500 in Sherrone Moore’s debut season as head coach.

That risk has already resulted in a change at quarterback, as Moore swapped previous starter Davis Warren with Alex Orji in the hope of giving the Wolverines’ sluggish offense a jolt.

That unit lines up against what looks like an improved USC defense, an oft-maligned unit that has cost the program dearly in Lincoln Riley’s first two seasons as head coach.

But in D’Anton Lynn’s first outing as coordinator, the D has already helped to beat a ranked LSU in the season opener and completed its first shutout in Riley’s tenure, and the program’s first since 2011, after spanking Utah State, 48-0.

Here’s what you should be watching out for as No. 11 USC faces off against No. 18 Michigan in this Week 4 Big Ten clash, along with our updated game prediction.

USC vs. Michigan prediction, preview

USC Trojans vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction / Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

When Michigan has the ball

All eyes are on Alex Orji to resurrect the Wolverines’ attack, but he’s limited on experience. The quarterback has attempted just 7 career passes in 3 years, but Moore has boasted that Orji’s accuracy has improved significantly in that time.

Orji is a gifted runner who can earn his own yards and extend plays by floating around the pocket, but he will have to prove himself throwing the ball early on to prevent USC from loading the box and holding Michigan’s offense to one dimension.

That dimension hasn’t fared well thus far, as the Wolverines rank 121st nationally in pass production and by failing to open things up more convincingly, opponents have been able to stymie the rushing attack, which ranks 50th with under 177 yards per game.

All of which has conspired to keep Michigan off the scoreboard, ranking 99th among 134 FBS teams by scoring 23.3 points per game on average.

Going after USC’s defense doesn’t look as easy as it used to be. The unit ranked 116th in production last season, and while it’s still early, the Trojans were successful at stopping LSU from running the ball in the opener, which could spell trouble for Michigan’s backs.

Kalel Mullings leads Michigan so far in rushing capacity, pacing the team with 270 yards off 36 carries and averaging 7.5 yards per run, scoring 2 of the team’s 3 rushing touchdowns.

When USC has the ball

Replacing a former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall draft pick is always daunting, unless you’re Lincoln Riley, who usually has a stock of quarterbacks at his disposal.

Miller Moss has stepped up admirably in Caleb Williams’ place thus far, throwing for 378 yards and a TD against LSU before adding 229 more yards and a score in 2 quarters against Utah State, building off a solid effort when he had 6 touchdown passes in a bowl victory to end last season.

Michigan has a rotation of skilled pass defenders in the secondary, but the unit struggled to keep contain against speedier Texas targets and could face a similar dilemma against a battery of USC receivers who can peel off consistent yards after the catch.

Tight end Lake McRee is Moss’ preferred target, leading USC with 137 yards off 9 grabs, and is 1 of 5 receivers on the roster to average more than 15 yards per reception.

But most of the Trojans’ damage on offense has come from running the football, as Woody Marks leads the way with 171 yards and scoring 3 of the team’s 7 touchdowns on the ground while posting a respectable 5.9 yards per carry.

Quinten Joyner is another threat, averaging 6.9 yards per touch off 14 carries with 2 touchdowns.

Michigan has performed well against the run so far, allowing opponents to average just 2.66 yards per attempt on the ground and surrendering just 1 touchdown.

Michigan vs. USC odds

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

USC: -4.5 (-110)
Michigan: +4.5 (-110)

Over 44.5 points: -102
Under 44.5 points: 120

USC vs. Michigan Prediction

Michigan has the pieces in the secondary to close down some of Moss’ deeper passing lanes, which will have the effect of preventing USC from gaining an early rhythm on offense.

And the Wolverines have the bodies up front to credibly contest the Trojans’ ability to run and take a half-second off Moss’ ability to plant his feet and get rid of the ball.

But there are still structural questions around Michigan’s ability to build real offensive consistency. It should find some running lanes against USC’s front seven alignment early on, but over time a relative inability to test the deep field, a skill the Trojans do have, will make the difference.

College Football HQ picks ...

• USC wins 31-23
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... USC vs. Michigan score prediction by expert football model

-

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks