USC vs. Minnesota football prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for USC vs. Minnesota by the football model that picks winners.

USC vs. Minnesota football prediction / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Big Ten football kicks off from the Twin Cities with a new-look matchup brought to us by conference realignment as No. 11 USC visits Minnesota in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday.

USC is 1-1 in Big Ten play, rebounding from a 3-point loss at Michigan to take down Wisconsin last week, surviving 3 turnovers and compiling 469 yards after surrendering a 21-10 lead early on.

Minnesota fell to 0-2 in conference games after dropping decisions against Iowa and Michigan and come into this weekend ranked 114th nationally in rushing output and 78th in scoring offense.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

USC vs. Minnesota prediction

As expected, the model is strongly in favor of the Trojans on the road.

USC is the favorite on the index, projected to win the game in the majority 71.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Minnesota as the expected winner in the remaining 28.5 percent of sims.

In total, USC wins out in 14,300 of the computer’s 20,000 simulations, while Minnesota comes out ahead in the other 5,700 projections.

USC is projected to be 8.4 points better than Minnesota on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be just enough for the Trojans to cover the spread.

That’s because USC is an 8 point favorite against Minnesota, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel listed the total at 50.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for USC at -320 and for Minnesota at +260 to win outright.

Most bettors expect the Trojans to take care of the Gophers in this one, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A majority of bets -- 69 percent -- predict that USC will win the game and cover the point spread.

The remaining 31 percent of wagers project the Gophers can keep the game within the line, or upset the Trojans outright.

USC is fifth among Big Ten teams with a 21.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.5 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Minnesota a 31.8 percent chance to become bowl eligible and a win total projection of just 4.9 games.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Alabama (40)
2. Texas (19)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Penn State
8. Miami
9. Missouri
10. Michigan
11. USC
12. Ole Miss
13. LSU
14. Notre Dame
15. Clemson
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Utah
19. Oklahoma
20. Kansas State
21. Boise State
22. Louisville
23. Indiana
24. Illinois
25. UNLV and Texas A&M (tie)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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