USC vs. Minnesota score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for USC vs. Minnesota in this Week 6 college football game.

USC vs. Minnesota score prediction / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

One of the Big Ten’s new conference matchups gets underway this weekend as No. 11 USC hits the road against Minnesota in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with the updated prediction for the game by the expert model that picks winners.

USC was down early at home to Wisconsin last week after some costly turnovers, but rebounded to score 28 unanswered points and secure its first Big Ten victory, ranking 12th in FBS in passing production and a much-improved No. 32 nationally in total defensive output.

Minnesota sits at 0-2 in Big Ten play after losses to Iowa and Michigan that exposed the team’s rushing defense as a vulnerability, as is the rushing offense, which is 114th nationally with just over 101 yards per game on average.

What do the experts think of this new-look Big Ten matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how USC and Minnesota compare on the same field in this Week 6 college football game.

USC vs. Minnesota score prediction

As expected, the Trojans are tabbed as the favorite against the Gophers, but in a very close game.

SP+ predicts that USC will defeat Minnesota by a projected score of 29 to 25 and to win the game by an expected margin of just 4.8 points.

The model gives the Trojans a 62 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a 53.8 win percentage.

USC vs. Minnesota game odds

USC is an 8 point favorite against Minnesota, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 49.5 points for the game.

And it listed the moneyline odds for USC at -320 and for Minnesota at +260 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Minnesota +8
• USC to win -320
• Bet over 49.5 points

Most bettors are taking the other view of this game, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

A solid majority -- about 66 percent -- of bets currently predict that USC will win the game and cover the spread.

And the remaining 34 percent of wagers projects that Minnesota will either defeat the Trojans in an upset, or keep the game within the line.

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Trojans over the Gophers.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

USC is projected to win the game in the majority 71.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Minnesota as the expected winner in the remaining 28.8 percent of sims.

USC is projected to be 8.4 points better than Minnesota on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

The index predicts a divergent course for both these Big Ten teams going forward after this week.

USC is fifth in the conference with a 21 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.4 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Minnesota a win total projection of 4.9 games and a 32 percent likelihood of making it to a bowl game.

How to watch USC vs. Minnesota

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 6:30 p.m. CT | 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: Big Ten Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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