USC vs. Minnesota prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for USC and Minnesota meet in this Week 6 college football game, with our updated prediction.

USC vs. Minnesota game prediction / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

One of the Big Ten’s new-look conference games brought to us by realignment kicks off from the Twin Cities this weekend as No. 11 USC hits the road against Minnesota in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday. Let’s check in with our updated prediction for the game.

Both these teams are coming off 27-24 losses at Michigan in the last few weeks, with the Trojans at 1-1 in conference play while the Gophers are 0-2 and struggling against Big Ten opposition so far.

USC is coming off its first Big Ten victory, rebounding after some costly turnovers against Wisconsin to pull out a big win by scoring 28 unanswered points.

Minnesota allowed 503 rushing yards to the Wolverines and Hawkeyes over its two initial conference games but faces a Trojan ground attack that is 88th in FBS so far.

What can we expect in the matchup? Here’s what you should watch out for as USC visits Minnesota in this Week 6 college football game, with our updated prediction.

USC vs. Minnesota prediction: What to watch

1. Test the Gophers. USC’s passing game is a team strength, but so is Minnesota’s pass defense, a unit that ranks as the best in college football in total production, and the only one in the country allowing under 100 yards per game on average.

The Gophers have intercepted 8 passes, the third-most, have allowed 1 TD in the air, and surrender just 4.3 yards per attempt from opposing passers, the second-best mark in the country.

2. Third downs. USC is tops in the Big Ten in third down defense, allowing just 13 conversions on 49 attempts (27%) and is 23rd in third down offense among 134 FBS teams so far, converting 49 percent of chances.

That allows the Trojans to dominate time of possession and gives them a decided edge against the Gophers, whose subpar ground game and midrange passing strategy are ill-equipped to consistently handle longer third down chances.

3. Minnesota can’t move. Max Brosmer is broadly efficient throwing the ball, but he has as many TDs and INTs the last 3 games and the Gophers’ ground game is second-worst in the Big Ten when it comes to rushing yardage per game and posts all of 3.4 yards per carry.

USC’s improved defense is doing some solid work when the ball is in the air, ranking 15th nationally against the pass in total production and has intercepted as many throws as it has surrendered touchdowns in the air (3).

What the analytics say

Most analytical models are siding with the Trojans against the Gophers this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

USC is projected to win the game in the majority 71.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Minnesota as the expected winner in the remaining 28.2 percent of sims.

USC is projected to be 8.4 points better than Minnesota on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... USC vs. Minnesota prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

USC is an 8.5 point favorite against Minnesota, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points in the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for USC at -320 and for Minnesota at +260 to win outright.

What the bettors say

Most bets currently project that USC will handle Minnesota this weekend, according to the latest spread consensus picks, via Odds Shark.

A plurality of bettors -- 66 percent of them -- predict that the Trojans will defeat the Gophers and cover the spread in the process.

The other 34 percent of wagers expect the Gophers to stay within the line or upset Southern Cal.

USC vs. Minnesota prediction: Who wins?

One possible silver lining for the Gophers’ listless offense could be that USC, despite its relative improvement on defense, is still not really bringing the heat when it comes to the pass rush.

That could give Brosmer and his receivers time to build enough momentum with a battery of midrange passes that could move the chains and extend drives that suck the life out of USC’s tacklers as the game wears on.

Part of the Gophers’ superb pass defense numbers could be a mirage given the competition they’ve gone up against recently, especially some dismal passing offenses like Iowa and Michigan.

Sometimes, one team just has the playmakers, and the other one doesn’t.

And its the Trojans who have the quarterback and the receivers to put a dent into Minnesota’s secondary to pull away.

College Football HQ picks ...

• USC wins 38-16
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... USC vs. Minnesota score prediction by expert model

How to watch USC vs. Minnesota

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 6:30 p.m. CT | 4:30 p.m. PT
TV: Big Ten Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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