USC vs. Wisconsin football predictions: What the analytics say

Expert predictions for USC vs. Wisconsin by the football model that picks winners.

USC vs. Wisconsin football predictions / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Wisconsin embarks on its Big Ten opener on the road against a USC team already at 0-1 in conference play in this Saturday’s Week 5 action from the Coliseum.

Coming off an open week after getting pantsed by Alabama in a 42-10 decision that saw quarterback Tyler Van Dyke tear his ACL, the Badgers hope to make a better impression against a Trojans defense that remains a work in progress.

USC slid down to No. 13 in the AP poll after dropping a 3-pointer at Michigan in which Miller Moss had thrown a touchdown to take the lead, but the D couldn’t stop the Wolverines from going the other way and scoring a very late TD to win it.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

USC vs. Wisconsin predictions

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the home team this week.

USC comes out as the projected winner in the majority 87.8 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Wisconsin as the expected victor in the remaining 12.2 percent of sims.

USC is projected to be 18.2 points better than Wisconsin on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

If so, that would be enough for the Trojans to cover the spread.

That’s because USC is a 15.5 point favorite against Wisconsin, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book listed the total at 50.5 points.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for USC at -700 and for Wisconsin at +500 to win outright.

The majority of bettors expect USC to handle the Badgers at home in this one.

Nearly 8 in 10 wagers, or 78 percent, expect the Trojans to win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 22 percent of bets project Wisconsin to either win in an upset, or stay within the line.

Taking the point spread and total into consideration, the implied score for the game suggests that USC will defeat Wisconsin by a score of 33 to 17.

USC is fifth among Big Ten teams with an 18.3 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.3 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model projects Wisconsin will win 5 games with a 35.8 percent shot to play in a bowl game.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 poll

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (44)
2. Georgia (13)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Tennessee
6. Ole Miss
7. Miami
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Utah
11. Missouri
12. Michigan
13. USC
14. LSU
15. Louisville
16. Notre Dame
17. Clemson
18. Iowa State
19. Illinois
20. Oklahoma State
21. Oklahoma
22. BYU
23. Kansas State
24. Texas A&M
25. Boise State

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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