USC vs. Wisconsin prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as USC and Wisconsin meet in this Big Ten football game, along with our updated prediction.

USC Trojans vs. Wisconsin Badgers prediction / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Conference realignment comes into sharper focus this weekend as a new-look Big Ten game kicks off from L.A., with No. 13 USC returning home in search of its first league victory as it welcomes Wisconsin in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

Miller Moss connected with Ja’Kobi Lane on a touchdown with 7 minutes left at Michigan last week, but the defense couldn’t stop the Wolverines going down the field and scoring late to spoil the Trojans’ debut in the Big Ten and handing the team the first loss of the season.

USC ranks 47th in FBS in total defense, a marked turnaround from last season’s dismal output on that side of the ball, and a good early sign for coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s project to resurrect the unit and put the program in contention for the expanded College Football Playoff.

In their way stand the Badgers, coming out of an open weekend following a forgettable 42-10 loss at home to Alabama in which starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was lost to a season-ending knee injury. Wisconsin ranks 104th nationally in passing and 109th in scoring.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should be watching out for as USC and Wisconsin square off from the Coliseum, along with our updated prediction for the game. 

USC vs. Wisconsin prediction: What to watch for

1. Pressuring Moss. Bringing the heat against opposing quarterbacks hasn’t exactly been Wisconsin’s strong suit this season, and it could struggle getting to USC’s Miller Moss.

He hit almost 73% of his throws in 2 wins, has credible arm strength and proven accuracy, and was efficient even in the face of Michigan’s fierce pass rush last week.

USC can field some bigger receivers on the outside perimeter who will be tough mismatches for the Badgers’ defensive backs and presents legit speed from the slot. Duce Robinson, Ja’Kobi Lane, and Zachariah Branch will cause problems in space all day.

2. Stop the run. USC’s defense is better, but still a work in progress, in particular against good rushing attacks. Last week, the unit allowed 290 yards on the ground against a Michigan team it knew would run the ball a lot.

Wisconsin isn’t the rushing behemoth it used to be as Phil Longo looks to balance out the offense a little more, but Chez Mellusi is still a threat in a backfield that averaged 4 yards per carry. 

And now USC won’t have lineman Bear Alexander after he elected to transfer over playing time concerns.

3. Test the secondary. Braedyn Locke has stepped in for Van Dyke under center, and he could quietly spur a little offensive revival for the Badgers throwing the ball.

In five starts a year ago, he threw 5 TDs with no picks while averaging 35 passes per game, and could inspire this offense to pick up the pace a little. 

Wisconsin is 9th in time of possession this season, but wants to get Locke active with a battery of intermediate passes and spread out the Trojans’ defense a little more to open things up nearer the line and give Mellusi and the Badger backs a little more breathing room.

What the analytics say

Most analytical models are siding with the Trojans against the Badgers this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

USC is projected to win the game in the majority 87.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Wisconsin as the expected winner in the remaining 12.3 percent of sims.

USC is projected to be 18.2 points better than Wisconsin on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... USC vs. Wisconsin prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

USC is a 14.5 point favorite against Wisconsin, according to the updated lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 50.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for USC at -670 and for Wisconsin at +470 to win outright.

A majority of bettors, 72 percent, project that USC will win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 28 percent of wagers expect the Badgers to either upset or keep it within the line.

USC vs. Wisconsin prediction

Wisconsin’s offense wasn’t expected to do too much after losing tailback Braelon Allen, and especially after watching Van Dyke tear his ACL, and there isn’t much to change that opinion right now.

While the Badgers will get something on the ground against the Trojans’ front line, it won’t be anything like what Michigan was able to do, and Wisconsin’s passing threat is minimal.

Miller Moss and USC’s receivers are anything but. The quarterback has the arm and the targets to open things up against the Badgers’ secondary and pick up their first Big Ten victory.

College Football HQ picks ...

• USC wins 38-16
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More ... USC vs. Wisconsin score prediction by expert football model

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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