USC vs. Wisconsin score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for USC vs. Wisconsin in this Week 5 college football game.

USC vs. Wisconsin score prediction / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

New-look Big Ten rivals square off from the Coliseum this weekend as No. 13 USC returns home still searching for its first conference victory as Wisconsin comes to town in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.

USC held a brief lead at Michigan but its defense failed to contain the Wolverines’ last-minute touchdown drive, and the Badgers are reeling after a 42-10 loss at home against Alabama last week that saw the quarterback Tyler Van Dyke suffer a season-ending knee injury.

What can we expect in the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how USC and Wisconsin compare in this Big Ten game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

USC vs. Wisconsin score prediction

The simulations currently favor the Trojans to hold off the Badgers at home.

SP+ predicts that USC will defeat Wisconsin by a projected score of 32 to 22 and to win the game by an expected 10.3 points.

The model gives Southern Cal a strong 74 percent chance of outright victory.

Point spread

USC is a 15.5 point favorite against Wisconsin, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for USC at -700 and for Wisconsin at +500 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Wisconsin +15.5
• USC to win -700
• Bet over 51.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models also favor the Trojans to take care of business at home.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

USC is projected to win the game in a majority 87.8 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Wisconsin as the expected winner in the remaining 12.2 percent of sims.

USC is projected to be 18.2 points better than Wisconsin on the same field, according to the FPI’s metrics.

More ... USC vs. Wisconsin prediction: What the analytics say

The model predicts that USC will win 8.3 games this season and gives the team a 17.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

FPI expects Wisconsin will win 5.1 games and has a 36.9 percent shot at becoming bowl eligible.

How to watch USC vs. Wisconsin

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 2:30 p.m. CT | 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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