Utah vs. Oklahoma State score prediction by expert college football model

What the analytics predict for Utah vs. Oklahoma State in this Week 4 college football game.

Utah Utes vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Prediction / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Big 12 rivals square off this weekend in a battle of ranked conference opponents as No. 12 Utah travels to No. 14 Oklahoma State in a marquee matchup of league title contenders in college football’s Week 4 action on Saturday.

Cameron Rising is expected to make his comeback for Utah at the quarterback position after missing last week’s game with an injury to his throwing hand.

Rising, who missed all of last season with a knee injury, threw 5 touchdown passes against Southern Utah in the Utes’ season opener a few weeks ago.

Ollie Gordon won the Doak Walker Award as college football’s best running back last season, but Oklahoma State’s star rusher has averaged just 2.6 yards per carry in his last 2 games, and the team ranks just 105th nationally in rushing output.

Luckily, the Cowboys are getting plenty of production from quarterback Alan Bowman, the veteran who leads an aerial attack that ranks 8th in the FBS in passing production with 334 yards per game.

What can we expect from the matchup this weekend?

Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Utah and Oklahoma State compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Utah vs. Oklahoma State score prediction

The simulations are projecting a close game. A very close game.

SP+ predicts that the game will result in a virtual 28 to 28 tie between the two teams, but gives the slight edge to Oklahoma State, who comes out 0.3 points ahead in the models.

The simulations give the Cowboys a narrow 51 percent chance of outright victory against the Utes.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

Point spread

Oklahoma State is a 2.5 point favorite against Utah, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 52.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Oklahoma State at -146 and for Utah at +122 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Utah +2.5
• Cowboys to win -146
• Bet over 52.5 points

Computer prediction

Other analytical models give the Cowboys the edge over the Utes in this game.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Oklahoma State comes out as the projected winner in a majority 60.7 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Utah as the expected winner in the remaining 39.3 percent of sims.

The index predicts that Oklahoma State will be 3.9 points better than Utah on the same field, enough for the Cowboys to cover the spread.

Oklahoma State is third among Big 12 teams with a 21.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 8.9 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

Utah will win 8.6 games and is fourth in the Big 12 with a 15.5 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.

Utah vs. Oklahoma State schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 3 p.m. CT | 2 p.m. MT
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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