Utah vs. Oklahoma State picks, predictions, Week 4 college football odds, lines

Expert predictions for Utah vs. Oklahoma State by the computer model that picks winners.

Utah vs. Oklahoma State picks, predictions / SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

College football returns to the field this weekend in a major Big 12 matchup that will help sort out the conference's early title picture, as No. 14 Oklahoma State welcomes No. 12 Utah on Saturday.

The game should herald the return of Utah quarterback Cameron Rising, who missed last week after injuring his throwing hand the weekend before, at the helm of an offense that averages 35 points per game.

The Cowboys can throw the ball, too, averaging 8th nationally with 334 passing yards per game, a good thing, since star tailback Ollie Gordon has failed to dominate so far, averaging under 3 yards per carry the last two games and leading a ground attack that is 105th in the country.

Looking ahead to this week's matchup, let's check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer projection model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Utah vs. Oklahoma State picks, predictions

So far, the computer models favor the home team in this matchup.

Oklahoma State is projected to win the football game in a majority 60.3 percent of the computer's most recent predictions, or 12,060 of the model's picks.

That leaves Utah as the expected winner in the remaining 39.7 percent of sims.

The model projects that Oklahoma State will be 3.9 points better than Utah on the same field.

That would be considered an upset, given the most recent point spread for the game.

Utah is the 1.5 point favorite against Oklahoma State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 54.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Utah at -118 and for Oklahoma State at +102 to win outright.

Oklahoma State places third among Big 12 teams with a 21.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, and is projected to win 8.9 games, according to the model.

That model projects Utah will win 8.6 games and finishes just behind the Cowboys with a 15.9 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

AP top 25 rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (35)
2. Georgia (23)
3. Ohio State (5)
4. Alabama
5. Ole Miss
6. Tennessee
7. Missouri
8. Miami
9. Oregon
10. Penn State
11. USC
12. Utah
13. Kansas State
14. Oklahoma State
15. Oklahoma
16. LSU
17. Notre Dame
18. Michigan
19. Louisville
20. Iowa State
21. Clemson
22. Nebraska
23. Northern Illinois
24. Illinois
25. Texas A&M

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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