Utah Utes vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

What to expect as the Utah Utes and Oklahoma State Cowboys meet in this Week 4 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Utah Utes vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Prediction / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The matchup of the early Big 12 football season finds two undefeated, ranked conference contenders as No. 12 Utah makes its league debut on the road against No. 14 Oklahoma State in college football’s Week 4 action. Here’s what you need to know about the game, along with our updated prediction.

Cameron Rising is expected to return at the quarterback position for Utah after missing last week’s game with an injury to his throwing hand, giving this offense the boost it needs to remain a credible threat in a competitive Big 12 championship picture.

Oklahoma State has not run the ball up to expectation despite the return of Doak Walker Award-winner Ollie Gordon, but the Cowboys have made up for it with an aggressive passing attack led by veteran quarterback Alan Bowman.

OSU held off an upset-minded Arkansas team two weeks ago and is ranked 18th nationally by scoring just under 43 points per game on average, returning 21 of 22 starters on a roster that was on the field for two of the last three Big 12 title games.

Utah makes its Big 12 debut in this game as recent winners of consecutive Pac-12 championships and is neck-and-neck with the Pokes in the early race to play for this league’s crown and thus earn an automatic bid in the expanded College Football Playoff.

The winner of this one takes a big step towards that goal, while the loser would be one very notable step back. Let’s predict this weekend’s Utah vs. Oklahoma State matchup.

Utah vs. Oklahoma State prediction, preview

Utah Utes vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Prediction / NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

When Utah has the ball

The 25-year-old Rising is slated to make his return after missing last week and hoping to regain his momentum after missing all of last season with a knee injury. He started this season off well enough, throwing 5 touchdown passes in the Utes’ win over Southern Utah to open the year.

And his presence on the field is directly connected to Utah’s fate overall, as the team is 19-5 in games he has started and finished dating back three seasons.

But there could be accuracy concerns if he has to wear a glove on his throwing hand, which reportedly required stitches around two of his fingers after he collided with a water cooler.

That could be a window for the Cowboys to generate some takeaways, but the front seven has struggled to adequately contain mobile quarterbacks, and keeping Rising in the pocket will be critical to curtailing Utah’s offensive rhythm.

Utah will want to run the ball early to control the line and take pressure off Rising, and thus far the ground game has been successful, averaging 192 yards per game, good for 40th nationally. 

Micah Bernard leads the charge with 274 total yards on 41 carries, averaging 6.7 yards per carry, but has scored just once, and the Utes have run for only 2 touchdowns.

Utah is 105th nationally in third down offense, converting just 13 of 40 chances.

The Cowboys are 93rd in the nation in rush defense, allowing 4.41 yards per carry, and 93rd in third down defense, allowing opponents to convert on 40 percent of opportunities.

Six different receivers have scored touchdowns for Utah, with tailback Dijon Stanley outpacing his peers with 155 yards off 5 catches.

Tight ends Brant Kuithe (3 TDs) and Caleb Lohner (2 TDs) are key targets, as is wideout Money Parks, who has 2 scores off 8 receptions.

When Oklahoma State has the ball

The Cowboys enjoy plenty of experience on a veteran offensive line that came back as a team strength this season, and while there is some concern around its opening rushing lanes so far, the unit has fared better in protecting against rushers in pass situations.

But it will be challenged against a Utah front seven that has been generating some consistent pressure in recent years, and already with 10 sacks recorded this season, good for 15th nationally.

All eyes are on Ollie Gordon to get going behind OSU’s line. The tailback who scored 21 times a year ago has just 90 yards and averaged 2.6 yards per carry in his last 2 games, numbers that have resulted in the Cowboys ranking 105th in FBS in rushing production per game.

Part of Gordon’s limited output can be pinned on opponents loading the box to keep him contained, and Utah does have the bodies and the discipline to play that kind of game, starting from a strong interior alignment that allows its center-field defenders more room to roam.

De’Zhaun Stribling leads the Cowboys’ receiving targets, catching 17 passes for 295 yards and has 2 of the team’s 8 touchdowns in the air. Brennan Presley may be averaging under 8 yards per grab, but has a team-high 3 touchdowns off 23 catches.

Bowman is hitting 67 percent of his passes with 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He’s going against a Utah secondary that has 11 pass break-ups and 3 interceptions and ranks 25th in FBS by allowing just 144 passing yards per game.

Utah vs. Oklahoma State odds

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Utah: -1.5 (-108)
Oklahoma State: +1.5 (-112)

Over 53.5 points: -115
Under 53.5 points: -105

Utah vs. Oklahoma State Prediction

Gordon’s early struggles running the ball are concerning, especially as he goes up against a strong Utah front seven that has the bodies to stymie his momentum early on.

But the Cowboys have the protection and the experience under center for Bowman to keep the chains moving with a battery of intermediate passes to some talented receivers.

College Football HQ picks ...

• Oklahoma State wins 34-27
• In an upset
• And hits the over

More ... Utah vs. Oklahoma State score prediction by expert model

Utah vs. Oklahoma State schedule

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 3 p.m. Central
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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