West Virginia vs. Memphis score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for the 2024 Frisco Bowl as West Virginia and Memphis meet in this college football bowl game.

West Virginia vs. Memphis score prediction for the 2024 Frisco Bowl Game / Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

West Virginia and Memphis have Tuesday all to themselves on the College Football Bowl Season schedule as they kick off the Frisco Bowl. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Neal Brown won’t be on the sideline for West Virginia after the head coach was relieved of his duties, but the program reunited with Rich Rodriguez for 2025 and beyond, a decision they hope will put the football team on better footing coming off a 6-6 effort this year.

Memphis was a sleeper playoff hopeful this season, going 10-2 and pulling off a huge upset against AAC title contender Tulane a few weeks ago, winning 7 of its last 8 games.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as Memphis and West Virginia meet in this matchup.

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how the Mountaineers and Tigers compare in this college football bowl game.

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West Virginia vs. Memphis: Frisco Bowl 2024 score prediction

The models are siding more with the Tigers over the Mountaineers in this game, but by a close margin.

SP+ predicts that Memphis will defeat West Virginia by a projected score of 34 to 27 and will win the game by an expected margin of 7.4 points in the victory.

The model gives the Tigers a 68 percent chance of outright victory over the Mountaineers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.

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West Virginia vs. Memphis odds, how to pick the game

Memphis is a 5.5 point favorite against West Virginia, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Memphis at -205 and for West Virginia at +168 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Memphis -5.5
• Tigers to win -205
• Bet over 58.5 points

That would put you in the majority, as most bettors expect the Tigers will take care of business against the Mountaineers, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Memphis is getting 65 percent of bets to win the game and cover the point spread.

The other 35 percent of wagers project West Virginia will either win outright in the upset or keep the game under 6 points in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models also favor the Tigers over the Mountaineers in this game.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Memphis is the narrow favorite in this matchup, coming out ahead in 53.1 percent of the computer’s simulations of the Frisco Bowl game.

That leaves West Virginia as the projected outright winner in the remaining 46.9 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a close one.

Memphis is projected to be 1 point better than West Virginia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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How to watch the 2024 Frisco Bowl game

When: Tues., Dec. 17
Where: Frisco, Tex.

Time: 9 p.m. ET | 8 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN network

More ... The full 2024 college football bowl, playoff schedule

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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