ESPN computer predicts ACC football rankings for 2024 season

Where things stand in the ACC football power rankings, according to the ESPN Power Index analytics model heading into the 2024 season.

A preview of the ACC football power rankings after the ESPN analytics computer model crunched the numbers. / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Media Days is in the books and now as ACC teams return to school and prepare for fall camp, it's time to get an updated look at the conference's football power rankings as we move into a historic 2024 season marked by conference realignment and the expanded playoff.

More: Full ESPN rankings | Phil Steele's AP poll | Our ACC rankings

Some of that realignment took place in the ACC itself, which responded to the new market pressures by expanding well beyond its Atlantic Coast roots, adding a school in the Dallas area and a pair of old West Coast rivals to the conference rotation.

Here's a look at what ESPN's Football Power Index computer prediction model makes of the ACC football rankings ahead of the 2024 season.

ESPN computer predicts ACC football rankings in 2024

17. Virginia. Expect the Cavaliers to win 4.6 games this season as the index projects Tony Elliott's team to be 1.4 points worse than its opponents on average.

16. Wake Forest. Offensive upgrades are needed for the Deacs, who are projected to win 5.3 games with a mere 45 percent chance to play in a bowl game.

15. Syracuse. New coach Fran Brown brings on ex-Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, but the Orange are still only getting 5.8 wins on the ESPN index.

14. Stanford. The Cardinal have won just 13 total games since 2020 and this year the FPI predicts it will get just 5 more, with a 42 percent chance at becoming bowl eligible.

13. Boston College. Head coach Bill O'Brien has possibilities with Thomas Castellanos at quarterback, but so far the Eagles are getting 5.6 wins.

12. Georgia Tech. Haynes King returns at quarterback with key offensive contributors but the computers predict just 4.9 wins and a meager 36.8 percent shot at the bowl game.

11. Pittsburgh. Outgoing transfers leave Pitt's defense a big question going forward, but we should see the Panthers make a bowl with an expected 6.4 wins.

10. Duke. Manny Diaz steps in with a reputation for building defenses, but the ESPN computer projects 6.1 wins in his first year as head coach.

9. Virginia Tech. A ton of returning production for head coach Brent Pry includes quarterback Kyron Drones and what could be a repeat of last year's 7-6 run, according to the analytics.

8. Cal. The return of tailback Jadyn Ott is a major plus for the Golden Bears in their ACC debut, good enough for a projected 7 wins on the ESPN index.

7. North Carolina. There's a hole to fill at quarterback and the defense has always been a concern for Mack Brown, which has the computer pressing pause on the Heels at 7.5 wins this year.

6. NC State. The addition of veteran quarterback Grayson McCall and returning defensive personnel put the Wolfpack in the neighborhood of 8 wins with a 14 percent shot at the playoff.

5. SMU. Coming off an 11-win season in the American, the Mustangs return quarterback Preston Stone and face a more winnable schedule, as FPI projects 8.3 wins.

4. Miami. Incoming transfers on offense put the Hurricanes within striking distance of the ACC title, as the index forecasts 8.2 wins and an 18 percent chance at the CFP.

3. Louisville. Another transfer-loaded team for head coach Jeff Brohm, including quarterback Tyler Shough and ex-Bama wideout Ja'Corey Brooks, with 8 wins expected for the Cardinals.

2. Clemson. A projected 8.5 wins for what should be another strong defensive team, but we'll see if Garrett Riley's offense can find that game-changing receiver for Cade Klubnik.

1. Florida State. Expect a second-straight ACC title for the Seminoles, who are expected to win 8.8 games and make the playoff with 36 percent likelihood.

Related: When the AP preseason rankings come out

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