ESPN computer predicts Big Ten football rankings for 2024

Where things stand in the Big Ten preseason football rankings after ESPN's analytics computer crunched the numbers ahead of a historic 2024 kickoff.

An updated look at the preseason Big Ten football power rankings heading into a historic season of conference and playoff expansion. / Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA

A key player in the recent college football conference realignment and a likely beneficiary of the expanded playoff, the Big Ten is now home to 18 schools after moving out West. Now, after the annual Media Days, let's get a check-up on the league's preseason football rankings.

More: Full ESPN rankings | Phil Steele's AP poll | Our B1G rankings

With under a month to go before kickoff, here's a look at where things stand in the current Big Ten power rankings, according to ESPN's power index computer analytics model.

ESPN computer reveals Big Ten football rankings

18. Indiana. Curt Cignetti can expect to win 5.3 games this season with a 44.9 percent chance to qualify for a bowl game while being 2.4 points worse than opponents on average.

17. Michigan State. Jonathan Smith steps in as coach with holes to fill on defense and projected to win 4.8 games while averaging out as 1 point worse than opponents.

16. Illinois. Likewise, the Illini have replacements to find defensively while hoping to maintain their offensive output, but are picked to win just 5.3 games by the index.

15. Minnesota. A new quarterback could be what the Gophers need after a slump last season, but the computers expect just 5.3 wins and for this team to be only 0.4 points better on the field.

14. Purdue. Currently facing the Big Ten's lowest chance to go bowling at 30 percent and win just 4.5 games, the Boilermakers lost key talent to the portal but return quarterback Hudson Card.

13. Northwestern. David Braun won 8 games a year ago, but is projected to fall to 5.5 wins by these metrics, while averaging out as 1.3 points better than opponents.

12. Maryland. A new face at quarterback finds the Terrapins projected to win 6.6 games and sitting at an expected 4.1 points better on the field.

11. Rutgers. Eight starters return on a good defense, while a change at quarterback hopes to revive a subpar passing attack, and the Knights are projected to win 7.2 games.

10. Nebraska. Expect the Cornhuskers to win 6.5 games this season, despite the core of a strong run defense coming back plus the debut of 5-star quarterback Dylan Raiola.

9. UCLA. A somewhat-surprisingly high ranking for the Bruins, which lost a ton of production and their coach, but the computers favor UCLA by 4.9 points against opponents and expected to win 5.5 games.

8. Wisconsin. The computers expect just 6.5 wins for the Badgers in Luke Fickell's second full year as head coach, and just a 57.4 percent shot at a bowl game.

7. Iowa. This should be one of college football's stronger defenses again, but the jury is still out on whether Tim Lester can resurrect this offense, as ESPN projects just 7.0 wins.

6. Washington. Transfers galore for new coach Jedd Fisch after an exodus from the Huskies' CFP finalist team from a year ago, with the analytics forecasting 6.4 wins.

5. USC. Expect 7.1 wins for Lincoln Riley, which would be far below expectations after bringing on D'Anton Lynn to revive this defense, but the Trojans are an expected 11.1 points better than opponents.

4. Michigan. College football's defending champs reveal new players and a new coach, are projected to win 8.3 games, and despite a mere 7.3 percent shot at the Big Ten title, the Wolverines have a more-promising 28.5% chance at the expanded playoff.

3, Penn State. Another team expected to benefit from the new playoff, the Nittany Lions should hit 10 wins by ESPN's metrics, with a 59.1% chance at the CFP.

2. Ohio State. Ryan Day should win 10.2 games with a roster full of returning stars and blue-chip transfers, and is the current favorite to avenge three straight Ls to Michigan.

1. Oregon. The new kids on the block are the faves to win in Indy, projected to win 10.8 games, beat the Buckeyes, and make the College Football Playoff with a strong 76% likelihood.

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