Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings, bracket for Week 15

After some notable Rivalry Week results, On SI projects what the College Football Playoff rankings and bracket will look like heading into Championship Weekend.

What the new College Football Playoff rankings and bracket could look like entering Championship Weekend. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

What a tangled web the College Football Playoff selection committee has to unweave as it debates and reveals its latest top 25 rankings and bracket projection coming out of Rivalry Week.

Ohio State played a big role in that confusion, dropping a stunning fourth-straight game to rival Michigan despite being 20-odd point favorites, forfeiting not just the right to play Oregon for the Big Ten title, but maybe even the privilege of hosting a first-round playoff game.

Or did they? Because former ACC title favorite Miami also lost as a favorite in the regular season finale, handing Syracuse a signature win and playing itself out of the ACC Championship Game that, until now, the selection committee seemed pretty sure the Hurricanes would win.

That leaves SMU and Clemson facing off for the ACC crown, quite a turnaround for Clemson after losing to rival South Carolina but later in the day learning that it would make Charlotte after all after the Miami loss, and with that, a shot at the playoff.

Let’s take a crack at predicting what teams the College Football Playoff selection committee will put where in the rankings, and in the latest projected bracket for the first-ever 12-team playoff.

First-Round Byes

1. Oregon. No changes at the top as the Ducks stayed undefeated by trouncing Washington in the finale and are a narrow favorite against Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

2. Texas. We project the Longhorns will avenge their loss to Georgia -- their only loss this year and as the No. 1 team, to boot -- in their rematch in the SEC Championship Game.

3. SMU. Likewise, we foresee the Mustangs and their very potent offense getting past Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.

4. Boise State. The presumptive Mountain West champion will have its hands full against UNLV for that honor, but is favored to win and should be higher ranked than the Big 12 champ.

At-Large Teams

5. Notre Dame. No conference game for the Irish, and thus no ranking higher than fourth, but a strong 10-game win streak to close out will be enough to host a first-round game under the eyes of Touchdown Jesus.

6. Penn State. Despite losing to Ohio State head-to-head, it was the Buckeyes’ loss to Michigan that put the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten title bout, but a loss to the Ducks, as we project, is still enough to stay squarely in the playoff picture.

7. Georgia. It’ll be a top-four seed for the Bulldogs if they beat the Longhorns for the SEC title, but at worst they should host a first-round game between the hedges. Still, an ugly loss against Texas could imperil their playoff hopes altogether.

8. Ohio State. The committee has a big decision to make at 8 and 9, and whether the Buckeyes or Vols (in our projection) get the home game. We expect the selectors will favor Ohio State’s overall resume over UT’s, something that will certainly irk SEC fans.

9. Tennessee. Big Orange goes to Columbus in the first round of this prediction, possibly ending up behind the Buckeyes owing to a two-score loss at Georgia that will come up in the conversation, whereas OSU beat two (at the time) top-five teams, including one on the road.

10. Indiana. Say what you will about the Hoosiers’ dismal strength of schedule. The good news: it improved by playing Ohio State. The bad news: it got destroyed in that game. But Indiana’s other results, capped off by a 66-0 beatdown against Big Ten punching bag Purdue, and its 11-1 record can’t be ignored in a 12-team format.

11. Alabama. South Carolina fans will hate this, but the committee will likely use the Tide’s very close head-to-head win over the Gamecocks as the effective tiebreaker in choosing Alabama, plus Carolina’s losses to LSU (which Alabama routed) and Ole Miss. It’s a tough break because, in our view, South Carolina does simply look like a playoff team right now.

12. Arizona State. Our projected Big 12 champion Sun Devils should eventually get past Iowa State and earn one of the committee’s automatic bids as a conference champ.

First Four Out: Our sincere apologies to Miami, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Iowa State.

Group of Five hopefuls: UNLV (must beat Boise State), Army (must win the AAC), Memphis (which upset Tulane).

The projected bracket

Let’s put it all together. Who goes where?

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 11 Alabama at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Georgia
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

(Yes, we could see Georgia vs. Texas a third time.)

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

(Yes, we could see Ohio State vs. Oregon a second time.)

College Football Playoff rankings prediction

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Tennessee
7. Ohio State
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. South Carolina
13. Miami
14. Ole Miss
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. BYU
18. Clemson
19. Missouri
20. UNLV
21. Syracuse
22. Illinois
23. Colorado
24. Texas A&M
25. Army

How to watch it go down: The College Football Playoff rankings show

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