Predicting the first College Football Playoff rankings of 2024

As the College Football Playoff selection committee prepares to reveal its first top 25 rankings of a historic 2024 season, we take a shot at predicting what teams will land where.

Predictions for the first College Football Playoff top 25 rankings of the 2024 season / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As the College Football Playoff selection committee prepares its first top 25 rankings of a historic 2024 season, let’s take a shot at predicting what teams will land where in the poll.

College football playoff rankings criteria

College Football Playoff selectors create top 25 rankings based on their evaluation of teams’ performance on the field.

The committee employs several metrics to select the best teams.

• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head game results
• Results vs. teams in top 25 rankings
• Results vs. common opponents
• Conference championships

College Football Playoff electors also use advanced analytics to gauge teams’ play, but those numbers don’t play a formal role in the committee creating its top 25 rankings.

Predicting the College Football Playoff top 25 rankings

25. Army. The strong second-best team in the Group of Five ranks with that undefeated record, and being the only team in college football yet to trail at any point this season, and while the committee will be skeptical of the Black Knights’ quality of record up to this point, their ranking No. 4 nationally in point differential is what they want to see against that rotation.

24. Colorado. One of college football’s most improved teams this season, the Buffaloes have defeated two FBS teams with winning records and have a loss against ranked Kansas State.

23. Clemson. While the committee will appreciate the Tigers winning six straight games by an average of 27 points, last week’s loss to unranked Louisville and the Week 1 shellacking at the hands of Georgia will dock this team a few spots.

22. Vanderbilt. A loss to Georgia Southern isn’t ideal, but wins over then-No. 1 Alabama, Kentucky, and Virginia Tech have the ‘Dores a surprise challenger from the SEC.

21. South Carolina. One of a few three-loss teams the committee will want to rank, the Gamecocks are coming off a statement rout against No. 10 Texas A&M and played very close games against LSU and Alabama that they very nearly won.

20. Kansas State. The Wildcats own road victories against resurgent Colorado and Tulane, enough for inclusion in the first rankings, but the loss against Houston this week is something that can only be canceled out by winning the Big 12 title.

19. Pittsburgh. Three wins over bowl-eligible teams helps the Panthers, but an ugly loss at SMU, the first ranked team on their schedule, is something the committee will remember.

18. Louisville. The win at Clemson is a huge resume-booster, and even the Cardinals’ losses are somewhat impressive, all coming by a single score and all against highly-ranked competition.

17. Texas A&M. Beating LSU by 15 and pounding Missouri are two important SEC wins the committee will appreciate, but the loss to South Carolina hurts, and the loss of lead back Le’Veon Moss could impact the team later, as we know from its infamous Florida State decision last year that it will take prominent injuries into account if they becomes relevant.

16. Iowa State. This could have been a top 10 team if not for a last-minute loss to Texas Tech at home, one that seriously narrows the Cyclones’ margin for error in the Big 12 title picture.

15. Ole Miss. While the Rebels don’t have any wins against currently-ranked opponents, they played very close in losses and are coming off a 63-point effort against Arkansas that should have this offense passing the committee’s famous eye test.

14. LSU. The opening loss against USC hurts this team, considering the Trojans’ struggles since, but the Tigers also own important wins against South Carolina and Ole Miss.

13. Alabama. While losing to Vanderbilt hurts the Crimson Tide’s pride, it looks “better” to the committee given Vandy’s overall improvement, and Bama owns a huge win against Georgia.

12. Boise State. The likely leader in the Group of Five pecking order by the selectors’ judgment, given the presence of uber-productive back Ashton Jeanty and the only blemish on the Broncos’ record being a 3-point loss to now-No. 1 Oregon on the road.

11. SMU. Six straight wins, including against Louisville and Pittsburgh, combined with Clemson’s losses, puts the Mustangs right in the playoff picture and on a short list to contend for the ACC championship.

10. Penn State. Having just one loss will impress the committee, and while yet another defeat against Ohio State and wins against some very average Big Ten opponents will give the selectors pause, the schedule going forward should give the Nittany Lions every chance to finish 11-1.

9. Tennessee. A loss at an Arkansas team that just got plastered by Ole Miss hurts, as does the Vols’ relative offensive struggles recently, but this is one of the best defenses in the country and owns a win against Alabama, but a huge test against Georgia is forthcoming.

8. Notre Dame. The loss at home to NIU will be a prominent subject of conversation in the selection room, as will the Irish not having a conference title to play for, but a six-game win streak that includes victories against then-ranked Louisville and then-undefeated Navy, plus a road win against Texas A&M, are more than enough to make up for that early-season mistake.

7. Indiana. The Hoosiers are 9-0 for the first time ever thanks to a remarkable offensive turnaround under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, ranking first in college football with a plus-27.8 point differential, and while quality of schedule might be a concern, the team’s performance against those teams is what the selectors want to see.

6. Texas. Having one loss in their SEC debut season is important for the Longhorns, but a top-five ranking could be a lost cause as that loss came at home to Georgia by 15 points.

5. BYU. One of college football’s five remaining undefeated teams, the Cougars own two huge statement wins, a 31-point rout against ranked Kansas State, and against SMU in that team’s only loss this season. That win came in Dallas, too.

4. Miami. There may not be a signature win on the Hurricanes’ schedule this season, but a dynamic offense with Heisman hopeful Cam Ward at quarterback seems able to score at will, including in a come-from-behind win against Duke this past weekend.

3. Ohio State. Being one point away from an undefeated team, and that loss coming on the road against the top-ranked team in the nation is enough to stay in the top-four, but one spot below the Bulldogs as the committee will favor a loss in the SEC over a loss in the Big Ten.

2. Georgia. That loss against Alabama is something the committee will keep in the back of its mind, as they will last week’s sluggish effort against Florida, but the win against Clemson is valuable, and a dominant victory at then-undefeated Texas is hugely important.

1. Oregon. There likely won’t be any arguments in the committee room regarding the Ducks, who own that win against Ohio State, beat the selectors’ Group of Five favorite, and are coming off a 21-point win at Michigan, all thanks to a cadre of blue-chip skill players.

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