Predicting college football's Cinderella teams in 2024

Let's do a little early Playoffology, and project what overlooked college football teams could take advantage of the expanded playoff in 2024 and make a little run.

Ranking college football's most likely Cinderella teams looking ahead to the expanded playoff in 2024. / Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

College football has never been a sport known for its parity, with only a few blue-blooded, well-funded schools really ever in the chase for the national championship.

And while that general rule should remain in place going forward, the expansion of the College Football Playoff from four to 12 teams will at least create more opportunities for other schools.

And, as anyone who watches the NCAA Tournament knows well enough, it’s not uncommon for those lower-seeded teams to pull off a big upset early and make a little Cinderella run to glory before the clock strikes midnight.

There weren’t all that many surprises during the four-team College Football Playoff era, with just six schools making up 73 percent of the total appearances over the last decade.

What college football teams are in position to emerge as a Cinderella in this historic 2024 season?

Predicting college football's Cinderella teams in 2024

10. Memphis

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One of a few teams that can grab the Group of Five’s automatic playoff bid, the Tigers won 10 games a year ago, was competitive in its three losses, and returns the core of that roster, including star quarterback Seth Henigan, the engine behind a solid passing attack.

But Memphis does play a more difficult schedule, including dates on the road against Tulane, UTSA, and USF, and a trip to Florida State, although that game may have become slightly more competitive after the Seminoles’ struggles in Week 0.

9. Virginia Tech

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Tech is getting plenty of preseason hype in 2024 after a strong finish a year ago, with tangible growth on offense led by a highly-skilled dual-threat quarterback in Kyron Drones, and a defense that finished top 25 nationally in total production.

Now, the bulk of that rotation returns, as the Hokies lead the FBS with an expected 86 percent of returning production going against a marginally more favorable schedule in the ACC. Improvement from Drones and better blocking could put Tech in position to turn some heads.

8. Arizona

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One of college football’s most productive QB/WR duos reside in Arizona as the school comes off a big 10-win season and its debut in a more competitive Big 12 this fall, despite the loss of head coach Jedd Fisch, who wasn’t followed to Washington by Noah Fifita or Tetairoa McMillan.

Two of the Wildcats’ three losses a year ago came in overtime, but this No. 11 ranked offense had a major hand in defeating three different AP top 25 ranked opponents, and came within just nine combined points of beating two others. Arizona faces critical road tests at Kansas State and Utah.

7. NC State

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Coming off an outing in which its offense ranked in the lower third nationally, the Wolfpack dipped into the transfer portal and found veteran quarterback Grayson McCall to lead this unit, alongside ex-Duke back Jordan Waters, ex-UConn tight end Justin Joly, and former Ohio State target Noah Rogers.

Those additions help offset noted roster losses overall, and despite the defense losing All-American ‘backer Payton Wilson, the unit is still projected to perform well, something it’s done consistently over the last half-decade.

6. Oklahoma State

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Coming off a Big 12 title game appearance last year, the Cowboys return the fourth-most overall production in the country heading into a more competitive conference title chase, and that includes rushing champ Ollie Gordon, back after hitting 1,732 yards and scoring 21 times.

The question is the defense. Last season, the unit ranked No. 123 nationally in production, but added defensive back Kobe Hylton, who led UTEP in stops a year ago, and Obi Ezeigbo, who had 10.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks last fall.

5. Kansas

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Another big step in the Jayhawks’ return to prominence last season, the offense ranked top 10 nationally and won nine games despite playing backups at the quarterback position. Now, Jalon Daniels is slated to make his return from injury in 2024.

His presence alone should be enough to catapult the offense into contention in a winnable Big 12, especially given KU avoids playing the Cowboys, Wildcats, or Utes. Daniels had 2,439 all-purpose yards and 25 total touchdowns with just 6 picks the year before last.

4. Utah

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Despite the Utes’ notable accomplishments the last few years, which include consecutive Pac-12 titles, they are yet to make that final leap and qualify for the national playoff. Now, in a Big 12 that doesn’t have a clear No. 1 team and facing an automatic bid, that’s a very real possibility.

Most of the experience from another physical defense will return, albeit without sack artist Jonah Elliss, but the unit was top 25 nationally a year ago, and quarterback Cameron Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe are back from injury. They’re joined by transfers like wide receiver Dorian Singer, tight end Carsen Ryan, and tailback Anthony Woods.

3. Miami

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Transfers galore put the Hurricanes in position to take a big step forward for head coach Mario Cristobal, who is just 12-13 in two seasons at his alma mater. 

Cameron Ward steps in at quarterback with 135 all-purpose touchdowns, and tailback Damien Martinez is a major upgrade. Both are working with solid receivers and a strong line. The front seven is a plus, but replacements have to be made in the back seven.

2. Ole Miss

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Granted, the Rebels are becoming less of a “Cinderella” team these last few years under Lane Kiffin’s tutelage, winning 29 games over the last three seasons and completing the school’s first 11-win season a year ago after beating a good Penn State team in the bowl.

Jaxson Dart returns for a third season at quarterback, while the nation’s No. 1 transfer class could put this team over its last remaining hump. Walter Nolen and Princely Umanmielen help an elite defensive front, wide receiver Antwane Wells beefs up Dart’s available targets, and tailback Henry Parrish is back to succeed the outgoing Quinshon Judkins.

1. Penn State

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James Franklin’s subpar record against ranked competition, and recent results against Ohio State and Michigan, has kept Penn State out of the Big Ten title picture as of late, but there are few schools who could benefit more from the expanded playoff when accounting for schedule and roster.

Not having to play in the SEC gives Penn State the slight edge here over an Ole Miss team that beat it a year ago, and the return of key contributors on both sides of the ball is crucial. The team’s two principal backs are behind center to stabilize the offense while quarterback Drew Allar finds his deep ball, and the pieces of a highly-promising defense come back in 2024, as well.

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