College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 for Bowl Season

Where things stand in the updated ESPN top 25 college football rankings coming out of playoff selection day and moving into the 2024 bowl season.

Your look at the new ESPN top 25 college football rankings we come move into a historic 2024 playoff and bowl season. / USA Today Sports | IMAGN

Coming out of an eventful Championship Week full of upsets and prove-it moments to help separate the contenders from the pretenders, let’s get a check-up on the Top 25 college football rankings heading into a historic 2024 playoff and postseason, courtesy of the ESPN analytics department.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

What teams are moving up, and moving down, in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we come out of playoff selection day and move into the postseason?

College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Bowl Season

25. Boise State

Troy Babbitt-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 2

Record: 12-1

Boise State won the Mountain West Championship Game against UNLV and earned the coveted first-round bye in the College Football Playoff, but the computers give the team a meager 1.8 percent chance to win the national championship.

24. Kansas State

Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Record: 8-4

Kansas State wasn't able to keep its Big 12 title hopes alive, but will appear in the Rate Bowl game against Big Ten challenger Rutgers, a game the power index favors the Wildcats to win.

23. Iowa

Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK

Rankings change: Up 1

Record: 8-4

Iowa got to eight wins behind a marginally-improved offense and earned a place in the top third of the Big Ten standings and in the Music City Bowl against SEC challenger Missouri, with the computer giving the Hawkeyes a 52.8 percent chance to win that game.

22. Arizona State

Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 6

Record: 11-2

A big jump for the Sun Devils, but still rather low in these rankings considering they just punched Iowa State to win the Big 12 title and earned a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff as arguably the single hottest team in the country right now.

21. Florida

Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Record: 7-5

A strong finish for the Gators, and something for Billy Napier to build on with quarterback DJ Lagway returning, but first there's a date against Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl, in which the computers favor Florida against the AAC challenger.

20. Missouri

Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Record: 9-3

Not exactly the performance Eli Drinkwitz wanted coming off last year's 11-win, Cotton Bowl season, but there's still a chance to finish strong and with double-digit wins against Iowa in the bowl game.

19. Colorado

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 9-3

Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter will reunite one more time in the Alamo Bowl against BYU, but we'll always wonder how the Buffaloes could have looked had they made the Big 12 title game.

18. USC

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 6-6

Yes, the ESPN computers are keeping the Trojans in their rankings months after everybody else abandoned them, but we'll see how this team fares against Texas A&M in the Las Vegas Bowl.

17. LSU

Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 8-4

The computers like LSU to finish with 9 wins as the team faces off against Baylor in the Texas Bowl, but Brian Kelly will need a lot better answers in 2025.

16. Texas A&M

Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 8-4

The loss to rival Texas kept the Aggies out of the SEC Championship Game, leaving them with one more chance at a win against USC in the Alamo Bowl game.

15. Clemson

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 10-3

Clemson edged SMU to win the ACC Championship Game in a signature upset that re-drew the borders around the College Football Playoff, and singlehandedly kept old nemesis Alabama out of the field, but the computers give the Tigers a mere 1.5 percent chance to win the national title.

14. South Carolina

Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 9-3

South Carolina knocked off rival Clemson in the finale to cap off a banner year for Shane Beamer to build from, but first it's a 72.6 percent favorite against Illinois in the Citrus Bowl, according to the power index computer predictions.

13. SMU

Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 1

Record: 11-2

Losing the ACC title game as a favorite drops the Mustangs in these rankings, but they kept a place in the College Football Playoff on the road against Penn State.

12. Louisville

Bob Kupbens-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Record: 8-4

Louisville finished in a tie for fourth-place in the ACC standings and rank 10th nationally in scoring offense with almost 38 points per game heading into the Sun Bowl against Washington.

11. Miami

Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 10-2

A very costly loss to unranked Syracuse in the regular season finale left the Hurricanes out of the ACC title picture and out of the playoff, left to face Iowa State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, an unfortunate conclusion after putting together the best passing offense in school history.

10. Indiana

Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 11-1

Quite a job by Curt Cignetti in his first year as head coach, leading Indiana to some historic offensive output, and earning a place in the College Football Playoff, going on the road against Notre Dame.

9. Penn State

Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 11-2

The runner-up in the Big Ten gets a home game in the first round of the College Football Playoff, but the ESPN computer prediction models give this team a slim 8.7 percent chance to win the national championship.

8. Ole Miss

Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 9-3

A late loss kept the Rebels out of the playoff picture, so they'll finish in the Gator Bowl against Duke, in which the computers give Ole Miss a strong 83 percent chance of victory.

7. Tennessee

Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 10-2

The computers don't favor the Vols to win in the first round of the playoff on the road against Ohio State, but their defensive front should match up well against the Buckeyes' injury-laded offensive line.

6. Oregon

Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 13-0

College football's last bastion of perfection predictably earned the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff and await the winner of the Ohio State vs. Tennessee first-round game, but the computers don't have these Ducks at No. 1 like everyone else does.

5. Georgia

Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 11-2

A signature win over Texas in the SEC Championship Game propelled the Bulldogs into a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff and waiting for the winner of the Indiana vs. Notre Dame matchup, but first have to get quarterback Carson Beck healthy again.

4. Alabama

Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 9-3

No playoff for the Crimson Tide this year, but they do get a rematch of last year's CFP semifinal against Michigan, one the computer gives Bama a solid 81 percent chance to win in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

3. Ohio State

Barbara J. Perenic/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 10-2

A fourth-straight loss to Michigan doesn't exactly put Ryan Day on the proverbial hot seat, but his team needs to look great in the playoff, hosting SEC power Tennessee to the Horseshoe in the first round, and sitting fourth behind Georgia with an 11.8 percent chance to win the national title.

2. Notre Dame

Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 11-1

ESPN's computer model ranks the Irish second with a 16 percent chance to win the national championship, but first they have to get past the Hoosiers to earn a date against Georgia.

1. Texas

Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Record: 11-2

Despite the two losses to Georgia, the ESPN models still favor the Longhorns to make a run at the national championship, ranking first on the FPI board with a 24 percent chance to hoist the trophy.

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