College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Rivalry Week

Where things stand in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings moving into Rivalry Week and with everything to play for as Selection Day draws near.

What teams moved up, slid down, and stayed put in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings entering Rivalry Week. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Coming out of a Statement Saturday full of upsets and prove-it moments to help separate the contenders from the pretenders, let’s get a check-up on the Top 25 college football rankings heading into Rivalry Week, courtesy of the ESPN analytics department.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

What teams are moving up, and moving down, in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we head into the regular season finale?

College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Rivalry Week

25. Florida

Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total prediction: 6.8 games

When everyone had just about given up on the Gators and had Billy Napier all but fired, they turned out an inspired performance in a signature win against playoff hopeful Ole Miss, all but destroying the Rebels’ national title chances, pulling out a second-straight win against a ranked SEC team and becoming bowl eligible heading into the finale against reeling Florida State, and suddenly this could be a 7- or 8-win football team.

24. Colorado

Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 4

Win total prediction: 8.9 games

Travis Hunter further entrenched his position atop the Heisman Trophy odds after going over 100 yards receiving, but the Buffaloes were unable to convert that effort into a win, succumbing to Kansas on the road in a result that puts Colorado’s Big 12 title hopes in some peril with a home date against Oklahoma State to close out.

23. Oklahoma

William Purnell-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 4

Win total prediction: 6.4 games

Talk about a statement win for the Sooners, who came into Saturday night’s clash against playoff hopeful Alabama as a heavy underdog and just 1-5 in SEC play, but pulled out a defensive effort for the ages, forcing 3 interceptions from Jalen Milroe, including a pick-six and holding the Tide out of the end zone while rushing for 270 yards in a game that threatens Bama’s CFP hopes.

22. Kansas State

Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 3

Win total prediction: 8.5 games

Avery Johnson threw for 2 touchdowns and DJ Giddens ran for 2 more as the Wildcats routed Cincinnati at home, stopping a two-game losing streak and improving to 8-3 on the year, with a huge road test against Big 12 hopeful Iowa State to close out the regular season, a game the ESPN models projects K-State will win.

21. Missouri

Butch Dill-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 3

Win total prediction: 8.7 games

Marcus Carroll ran for 3 touchdowns and Missouri returned a fumble 67 yards for a touchdown to put away Mississippi State and improve to 4-3 in SEC play, and although the College Football Playoff has been out of the question for a while, a good bowl game should await the Tigers.

20. Iowa

Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 2

Win total prediction: 7.7 games

Kaleb Johnson ran for 164 yards in a win at Maryland to improve to 7-4 overall with a 5-3 mark in Big Ten play, and head coach Kirk Ferentz comes within two games of matching Woody Hayes’ conference victory number, and the Hawkeyes will host Nebraska this coming Friday.

19. LSU

Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 7.6 games

Josh Williams ran for 2 touchdowns as the Tigers squeaked out a 7-point win at home against Vanderbilt and the ESPN computers are still keeping this team in the rankings at 7-4.

18. USC

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 2

Win total prediction: 6.3 games

Yes, the Trojans are still in the ESPN computer rankings this week, but appear to have won their last game after taking down rival UCLA at the Rose Bowl, and hosting Notre Dame in the regular season finale.

17. Tulane

Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total prediction: 10.7 games

Idle this past weekend, the Green Wave got some rest after shutting out Navy the week before, a win that put the team in the AAC Championship Game against Army, but first there’s the regular season finale against 9-2 Memphis next week.

16. South Carolina

Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 3

Win total prediction: 8.4 games

LaNorris Sellers had 3 touchdowns and just 4 incompletions as the Gamecocks stacked up over 600 yards of total offense in an expected rout against Wofford with just a trip to rival Clemson remaining and a shot to make it to 9 wins.

15. Texas A&M

Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 1

Win total prediction: 8.3 games

The Aggies spotted Auburn a 21-0 lead early on, but stormed back to force the overtime. Four of them, in fact, but A&M’s would-be game-tying pass fell incomplete, resulting in a costly third loss heading into the finale against rival Texas.

14. Clemson

Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 2

Win total prediction: 9.7 games

Cade Klubnik threw 3 touchdowns before being pulled as the Tigers stomped on The Citadel, moving to 9-2 and looking ahead to an intriguing date against rival South Carolina to close out the regular season sitting in second place in the ACC standings this week.

13. Louisville

Bob Kupbens-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 4

Win total prediction: 7.7 games

Tyler Shough threw for 2 touchdowns and Isaac Brown ran for 2 more as the Cardinals blew out Pittsburgh in a 37-9 decision, and now they have a shot at 8 wins with a date at rival Kentucky in the regular season finale.

12. SMU

Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 3

Win total prediction: 11.3 games

Kevin Jennings had 2 touchdown passes and a third on the ground as the Mustangs easily got past Virginia on the road, clinching a spot in the ACC Championship Game, a result the playoff selectors will take a special interest in.

11. Indiana

Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 11 games

College football’s second-ranked scoring offense, good for 44 points per game this season, put just 15 points on the board and Kurtis Rourke was held to 68 yards and no touchdowns in an ugly loss at Ohio State that not only ends the Hoosiers’ perfect season, but puts their playoff hopes in peril.

10. Miami

Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 11.3 games

Cam Ward and the Hurricanes’ offense stacked up over 500 yards and went on a late scoring blitz to put away Wake Forest, more than enough for the selection committee to likely still call this team the favorite in the ACC title race this week.

9. Penn State

Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 2

Win total prediction: 11 games

Drew Allar threw for a touchdown, ran for another, and came through on a crucial fourth down conversion late to pull out a 1-point win at Minnesota that will keep the Nittany Lions in the College Football Playoff conversation at 10-1 with just a date against Maryland left.

8. Tennessee

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total prediction: 9.8 games

As expected, the Vols smacked UTEP at home in the late-season cupcake game, as Nico Iamaleava threw 4 touchdowns and the backfield accounted for 4 more scores, but the loss to Georgia last week has put a big dent in UT’s playoff hopes.

7. Oregon

Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total prediction: 12.2 games

Off this past weekend, the Ducks are still undefeated and have already clinched a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game heading into a showdown against Washington in Rivalry Week that will be a revenge game of sorts after losing to the Huskies in the last-ever Pac-12 title game a year ago.

6. Ole Miss

Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 8.9 games

Facing potential playoff elimination on the road against resurgent Florida, the Rebels defense allowed a late touchdown while the offense scored just 3 second-half points and Jaxson Dart threw 2 late interceptions in a stunning loss that could end Ole Miss’ playoff hopes for good.

5. Georgia

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 10.4 games

The Bulldogs put up 550 total yards and Carson Beck threw 4 touchdowns while Nate Frazier ran for 3 more to finally put away a resilient UMass team in Cupcake Week, clinching a spot in the SEC Championship Game, and now look forward to closing out in Clean, Old Fashioned Hate against rival Georgia Tech.

4. Alabama

John David Mercer-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 2

Win total prediction: 8.9 games

An ugly 24-3 loss at Oklahoma that saw the Crimson Tide completely outclassed on both sides of the ball as the offense failed to score a touchdown and Jalen Milroe threw 3 interceptions, potentially putting Alabama out of the 12-team College Football Playoff after a third loss.

3. Notre Dame

MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total prediction: 10.7 games

For the second time this season, the Irish pounded an undefeated service academy, trouncing Army at Yankee Stadium by a 49-14 count, holding the Black Knights to 3.6 yards per carry while stacking up 5 rushing touchdowns of their own in their ninth-straight win, inching closer to College Football Playoff selection.

2. Ohio State

Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total prediction: 11.6 games

Will Howard scored 2 touchdowns and Caleb Downs returned a kick for a touchdown as the Buckeyes put away undefeated Indiana and took a major step towards the Big Ten Championship Game in what would be a rematch against Oregon, but with Michigan up next to close out.

1. Texas

John David Mercer-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 11.2 games

A nice 31-14 win at home against Kentucky keeps the Longhorns atop the SEC standings heading into a reunion against Texas A&M a decade in the making with a shot at the conference championship on the line.

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