College football rankings: ESPN updates Top 25 poll for Week 11

Where things stand in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings moving into Week 11.

What you need to know as ESPN updates its Top 25 college football rankings heading into the Week 11 games. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Coming out of a Statement Saturday full of upsets and prove-it moments for would-be contenders, let’s get a check-up on the Top 25 college football rankings heading into Week 11, courtesy of the ESPN analytics department.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

What teams are moving up, and moving down, in the ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we head into consequential November football?

College football rankings: ESPN top 25 poll for Week 11

25. Florida

Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 2

Win total prediction: 5.5 games

Florida kept things close against rival Georgia all day, even tying the game in the fourth quarter, but let 2 TDs go by the other way late and lost quarterback DJ Lagway to a nasty-looking leg injury.

24. Tulane

Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 9

Win total prediction: 10.2 games

Makhi Hughes ran for over 100 yards as Tulane put away Charlotte, sitting at No. 2 in the AAC standings behind Army and ranking No. 7 in FBS with over 40 points per game this season.

23. Colorado

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 1

Win total prediction: 8.8 games

Off this past weekend, the Buffaloes got a little help in the Big 12 standings after some higher-ranked teams lost, and now sit in a second-place tie in the league with a 4-1 conference mark looking ahead to four winnable games to close out.

22. Kansas State

Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 4

Win total prediction: 9 games

Kansas State's conference title hopes took another hit after getting upset by Houston, which scored two fourth quarter touchdowns in the win, and the Wildcats are now 4-2 in Big 12 play.

21. Iowa State

Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 2

Win total prediction: 9.7 games

Undefeated no more, the Cyclones were unable to hold off Texas Tech late and now sit one big game back in the Big 12 standings moving into November.

20. Iowa

Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 6

Win total prediction: 8.2 games

Kaleb Johnson ran for 3 touchdowns as the Hawkeyes smashed Wisconsin, moving to 4-2 in Big Ten play and quietly sitting in the top third of the conference standings moving deeper into November.

19. Boise State

Marco Garcia-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total prediction: 11.5 games

Maddux Madsen led the way throwing the football in a rout over San Diego State on Friday night, and Boise State is still a strong contender for the Group of Five's playoff bid with just a 3-point loss to current No. 1 Oregon on its resume.

18. South Carolina

Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 3

Win total prediction: 7.6 games

If a few plays go another way this season, the Gamecocks could have a much better record, especially after watching their stout defense take it to Texas A&M in a statement 44-20 victory at home that also saw this offense get more aggressive.

17. USC

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 2

Win total prediction: 5.9 games

Another decision by the FPI models sure to arouse controversy, as the reeling Trojans are still included in these rankings despite falling to 4-5 after a loss to Washington, the latest embarrassment in a season Lincoln Riley would like to forget.

16. SMU

Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 10.8 games

No movement in these rankings, but a new double-digit win projection for the Mustangs after routing then-undefeated Pittsburgh at home in a November prove-it game that propels this team further into ACC title contention when it counts.

15. Texas A&M

Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 3

Win total prediction: 8.9 games

Quite a letdown for the Aggies, coming off that high from beating LSU two weeks ago, but falling flat in a 44-20 beatdown against South Carolina in which the offense didn't score a single point in the second half.

14. Louisville

Clare Grant/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Rankings change: Up 3

Win total prediction: 8.4 games

FPI kept the Cardinals behind the team they just beat, and whose playoff hopes they seriously diminished in the upset victory, despite Isaac Brown rushing for a career-high 151 yards in the win.

13. Clemson

Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 8.9 games

That six-game win streak came crashing down in an upset loss to Louisville at home and now Clemson needs some outside help to stay in the ACC title conversation moving into November while its playoff hopes dipped to just 7 percent.

12. LSU

Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 2

Win total prediction: 8.4 games

Off this past weekend, LSU is reeling from its second loss of the year and heading into a big home date against Alabama hoping to avoid a third with a 22 percent chance to make the playoff.

11. Penn State

Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

Rankings change: Down 2

Win total prediction: 10.5 games

James Franklin lost an eighth-straight game to the Buckeyes in a year when a lot of analytics picked him to get it done, but his offense failed to get in the end zone and his defense couldn't stop OSU when it had a chance, putting a dent in Penn State's postseason resume.

10. Indiana

Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total prediction: 11.3 games

Indiana is 9-0 for the first time in program history after rebounding from a 10-0 deficit to clobber Michigan State, and now there are games against Michigan and at Ohio State that will serve as the biggest tests of its historic season.

9. Miami

Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total prediction: 12.2 games

That was very close. Miami was trailing upset-minded Duke in the third quarter, but Cam Ward helped his team, and his Heisman chances, by leading a 36-3 scoring run to prevent a disaster and keep the Hurricanes undefeated heading into the final stretch.

8. Tennessee

Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Down 2

Win total prediction: 10.2 games

The offense was a little inconsistent early in the game once again, an issue for the team going forward, but scored 21 second half points as Dylan Sampson ran for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns to pull away from Kentucky, moving to 4-1 in SEC play with a trip to Georgia in two weeks.

7. Oregon

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total prediction: 11.9 games

Most other pollsters have Oregon at No. 1 in their rankings, but the FPI computers are a little more cautious when judging the Ducks' projected margin of victory going forward. Still, the index forecasts Oregon is the Big Ten's best shot at the playoff, with 95.6 percent odds to make it.

6. Ole Miss

Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Rankings change: Up 1

Win total prediction: 9.3 games

Jaxson Dart and wide receiver Jordan Watkins played themselves into the Ole Miss record books with some historic play as the Rebels stacked up 63 points at Arkansas, inching back above .500 in SEC play heading into a crucial matchup at home against Georgia.

5. Notre Dame

MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 10.4 games

Another idle team this past Saturday, the Irish are on a roll, winning six straight games after pounding then-undefeated Navy two weeks ago in a result that will impress the selection committee, but there's no room for error with the NIU loss. Florida State comes to South Bend this weekend.

4. Georgia

Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 10.2 games

Carson Beck threw 3 interceptions to make things very close against Florida most of the day and the game was tied at 20 in the fourth quarter before Georgia added 2 late touchdowns to pull away. A shaky performance heading into another big road matchup, against resurgent Ole Miss this week.

3. Alabama

Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 9.5 games

The computers give the Crimson Tide a 55.5 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff after improving to 3-2 in SEC play two weeks ago and now, coming off their bye, head into a critical road test against LSU this coming weekend.

2. Ohio State

Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 11 games

Ohio State passed a huge test on the road against Penn State, culminating in a statement goal line stand to avoid what would have been a costly second loss, and jumping to 91.3 percent likelihood to make the College Football Playoff as a result.

1. Texas

Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Rankings change: None

Win total prediction: 10.7 games

Idle this past weekend, the Longhorns welcome Florida at home in their next SEC test and are still a strong College Football Playoff contender, as the index projects they have a 77.9 percent chance to qualify.

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