College football's 12 most likely playoff teams entering Week 4

We're nearly a month into the 2024 season, and already the top dozen college football teams are starting to separate themselves from the pack in the playoff race.

Four weeks into the 2024 college football season, we take a look at what teams have the best shot at the playoff right now. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

We’re almost a full month into the 2024 college football season, and while there’s still plenty more opportunity for teams to make an impression, good or bad, with the conference schedules set to open up soon, some schools have already staked out their position in the playoff race.

That playoff is now expanded to 12 teams starting this postseason, meaning there will be more competition going forward, but one thing remains startlingly clear: expect to see a lot of the SEC and Big Ten for the national championship, now and in the future.

So, where does that leave things in the College Football Playoff race as we head into the Week 4 games? For that, let’s turn to the Football Power Index computer models to get a picture of how the analytics project the national title competition.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College football's 12 most likely playoff teams entering Week 4

12. Boise State

Playoff chance: 23.5%

National title odds: 0.2%

The Broncos gave Oregon a run for its money two weeks ago, and could emerge as the Group of Five's best playoff hopes behind the nation's 5th best rushing attack with Ashton Jeanty in the backfield.

11. Notre Dame

Playoff chance: 37.8%

National title odds: 2.2%

Destroying Purdue by a 66-7 count was cathartic for the Irish after the NIU loss, and going forward it's expected there will be just two ranked teams on the schedule, hosting Louisville and at USC in the finale.

10. Missouri

Playoff chance: 46.7%

National title odds: 2.1%

Missouri passed an important test this week in beating a ranked Boston College, and will face more in road games against Texas A&M, Alabama, and South Carolina, with a home date against Oklahoma, too.

9. Penn State

Playoff chance: 46.9%

National title odds: 2.2%

Penn State faces three likely ranked opponents, only one of them on the road, carving out a credible path to the playoff behind a strong rushing attack and good early returns from Drew Allar.

8. Oregon

Playoff chance: 52.3%

National title odds: 1.9%

Three of the Ducks' opponents are currently ranked, but games against Ohio State and Illinois come at home, with a trip to Michigan set for early November.

7. Miami

Playoff chance: 52.3%

National title odds: 3.1%

Miami has outscored its three opponents 159 to 26 and quarterback Cam Ward has proved a revelation for the offense, coming off leading a school record 750 yard effort last weekend. This is the ACC's best playoff hope.

6. Georgia

Playoff chance: 69.3%

National title odds: 8.3%

Football Power Index may be overreacting to Georgia's close call at Kentucky, but there are some concerns about a defense that allowed the Wildcats to rip off some long gainers for most of that game.

5. Ole Miss

Playoff chance: 70%

National title odds: 8.3%

Henry Parrish ran for 148 yards and 2 touchdowns while Jaxson Dart added 2 more on 377 yards and the Rebels offense out-gained Wake Forest 650 to 311 last weekend, but a much-tougher schedule awaits.

4. Tennessee

Playoff chance: 72.4%

National title odds: 9.5%

Big Orange has outpaced opponents 191 to 13, including a 41-point win over a ranked ACC team, but the SEC slate opens at Oklahoma this weekend and there are games against Alabama and at Georgia to come.

3. Ohio State

Playoff chance: 78.9%

National title odds: 14.3%

The Buckeyes haven't been tested yet, but they will be in a few weeks, with consecutive games against Oregon, Nebraska, and Penn State, with the first and last of those two coming away from home.

2. Alabama

Playoff chance: 84.5%

National title odds: 18.8%

Jalen Milroe is leading a Crimson Tide offense that is both efficient and aggressive, coming up with big plays at Wisconsin in a dominant victory, but the run defense will have to improve heading into the Georgia game.

1. Texas

Playoff chance: 90.4%

National title odds: 21.5%

Arch Manning played elite football after Quinn Ewers' injury last weekend, leaving the Longhorns offense in apparently good hands, and he could take the reins against UL Monroe and Miss. State before games against Oklahoma and Georgia really test this squad.

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