Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings, bracket for Week 14

After some major upsets across the country last weekend, the College Football Playoff will have some big decisions when compiling the bracket and rankings for Week 14.

Where things stand in the new College Football Playoff rankings and bracket projection entering Week 14. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Coming out of a hugely-consequential Statement Saturday that saw the contenders separate from the pretenders, let’s predict the next College Football Playoff bracket and top 25 rankings.

Some very notable upsets will have the selection committee rethinking who belongs where, who’s in, and who’s out, as they consider the fourth rankings and bracket projection.

Alabama and Ole Miss appear to be out of the picture suddenly, a remarkable turn of events for the SEC hopefuls after stunning losses on the road that threw a wrench into the playoff race.

Arizona State, meanwhile, emerged as the new contender from the Big 12 after winning a very important matchup against BYU, while Colorado also lost on the road last weekend.

With those changes in mind, let’s project who the selection committee will put where in the updated bracket and rankings as we move into Rivalry Week.

College football playoff rankings criteria

College Football Playoff selectors create top 25 rankings based on their evaluation of teams’ performance on the field.

The committee employs several metrics to select the best teams.

• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head game results
• Results vs. teams in top 25 rankings
• Results vs. common opponents
• Conference championships

College Football Playoff electors also use advanced analytics to gauge teams’ play, but those numbers don’t play a formal role in the committee creating its top 25 rankings.

First-Round Byes

1. Oregon. The presumptive Big Ten champion Ducks had last weekend off to prepare for its season finale against Washington having already clinched a spot in Indy.

2. Texas. The expected SEC champion in the committee room, but that would entail first beating Texas A&M to earn a spot in Atlanta, and then getting revenge against Georgia, which beat the then-No. 1 Longhorns in Austin earlier this year.

3. Miami. Still needing a win against Syracuse to make it to the ACC Championship Game and then having to beat SMU, which already clinched, and the Hurricanes should have a first-round bye.

4. Boise State. The committee’s favorite in the Group of Five could get a promotion into the top-four seed after BYU’s second loss, and given the Broncos’ only loss came by a field goal against No. 1 Oregon, but games against Oregon State and the Mountain West title bout remain, so nothing is clinched just yet.

At-large teams

5. Ohio State. After making a statement by dominating undefeated Indiana, the Buckeyes just need to beat rival Michigan at home to earn a spot against Oregon in the Big Ten title game, and there’s a decent chance they would make the playoff even with another loss there.

6. Penn State. Still technically in the Big Ten championship picture, the Nittany Lions need to beat Maryland and for Ohio State to lose to Michigan, but either way it appears this team is set for a first-round home playoff game.

7. Notre Dame. The loss to Northern Illinois is still something the committee is keeping in mind, but the Irish have responded as best as they could since then, including a 49-14 victory over undefeated Army, but a notable road game against USC awaits that could make things interesting.

8. Georgia. That win over Tennessee two weeks ago helped put the Bulldogs back in contention, and last week’s win over UMass clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game, which could make things interesting in how the committee judges this year’s conference title games.

9. Indiana. Initially, it appeared that ugly loss at Ohio State put the kibosh on the Hoosiers’ playoff chances, but other prominent road losses by SEC hopefuls Alabama and Ole Miss later that day flipped that narrative on its head.

10. Tennessee. The committee will take a more favorable view of a two-loss team that plays in the SEC, and the Vols could get back into the bracket after those aforementioned losses in the conference with a date against improved Vanderbilt to close out.

11. SMU. The Mustangs clinched a spot in the ACC Championship Game and are favored to finish undefeated in conference play with a date against Cal in the finale.

12. Arizona State. Four straight wins and two straight against ranked teams have the Sun Devils in pole position to make the Big 12 Championship Game, with just the finale against rival Arizona this weekend.

What the bracket would look like

No. 9 Indiana at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 10 Tennessee at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

No. 11 SMU at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

College Football Playoff rankings prediction

25. Army. Getting trounced by Notre Dame was not a great look, but the Black Knights still only have one loss this season.

24. Illinois. A win against Rutgers keeps the Illini respectable in the Big Ten pecking order.

23. UNLV. Getting one over on San Jose State keeps the Rebels in the Mountain West title picture.

22. Missouri. Beating up on SEC punching bag Mississippi State is what's expected for Mizzou.

21. Colorado. A loss at Kansas hurts the Buffaloes, but there's a crowded field atop the Big 12 right now.

20. Texas A&M. A four-overtime loss at Auburn for the Aggies, but they can still make the SEC Championship Game if they beat Texas next week.

19. Tulane. The Green Wave clinched a spot in the AAC Championship Game but still have to face 9-2 Memphis this week.

18. Iowa State. Still in the Big 12 picture, the Cyclones play Kansas State this week.

17. BYU. A two-game losing streak comes at the worst time for the Cougars.

16. Arizona State. Four straight wins has the Sun Devils in the playoff picture and the favorite in the Big 12 title race.

15. South Carolina. A huge road trip against Clemson is next for the Gamecocks.

14. Ole Miss. Likely out of the playoff after a touchdown loss at Florida, a heartbreaking turn of events for the Rebels, who started 1-2 in SEC play but played their way back into contention after beating Georgia a couple weeks ago.

13. Clemson. There's still a path to the ACC title game, but their part includes beating the Gamecocks while hoping Miami loses again.

12. Alabama. Possibly out of the playoff after a stunning loss at Oklahoma in which the Crimson Tide didn't score a touchdown.

11. SMU. Already clinched a place in the ACC Championship Game, the Mustangs can get a first-round bye if they win there.

10. Boise State. Still the favorite in the Group of Five in the committee room.

9. Tennessee. The Vols could be back in the playoff picture after other losses around the SEC.

8. Indiana. The loss at Ohio State hurts, but there's still a clear path to the playoff.

7. Georgia. The Bulldogs clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game.

6. Miami. The Hurricanes have to beat Syracuse this week to earn a spot against SMU in Charlotte.

5. Notre Dame. Dominating Army helps the Irish playoff bona fides, but there's a tricky game at USC to close out with no real margin for error.

4. Penn State. A virtual certainty the Nittany Lions get a home playoff game at best.

3. Texas. Beat the Aggies, and there's a spot waiting against Georgia for a shot at revenge.

2. Ohio State. A big win against Indiana has the Buckeyes in position to earn a place in Indy against Oregon looking to avenge that 1-point loss.

1. Oregon. College football's last undefeated team is practically assured a spot in the playoff even if they lose the Big Ten title game, but first they have to play Washington.

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