Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings, bracket in Week 13

Coming out of some consequential action over the weekend, it's time to lock in our predictions for what the next College Football Playoff rankings will look like.

Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings, bracket for Week 13 / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

As the College Football Playoff selection committee prepares its third top 25 rankings of a historic 2024 season, let’s take a shot at predicting what teams will land where in the poll.

College football playoff rankings criteria

College Football Playoff selectors create top 25 rankings based on their evaluation of teams’ performance on the field.

The committee employs several metrics to select the best teams.

• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head game results
• Results vs. teams in top 25 rankings
• Results vs. common opponents
• Conference championships

College Football Playoff electors also use advanced analytics to gauge teams’ play, but those numbers don’t play a formal role in the committee creating its top 25 rankings.

Predicting the College Football Playoff top 25 rankings

25. Missouri. A loss at South Carolina is the third for the Tigers, but the selectors won’t be too deterred by three losses to ranked teams, but Mizzou is skating on thin ice when it comes to the rankings and its playoff hopes are dashed.

24. Washington State. A loss at New Mexico gives the Cougars an 8-2 mark, which just might be enough for the committee to keep them in the rankings, but only just.

23. Iowa State. The committee dropped the two-loss Cyclones out of the rankings last week, a mistake in our view, and one that should be fixed in Week 13.

22. Tulane. A five-touchdown shutout win over Navy is impressive, although not as much as it would have been a few weeks ago, but a loss to Kansas State is limiting for the Green Wave.

21. Kansas State. Close to falling out of the rankings this week after the loss to Arizona State, the second-straight for the Wildcats, whose Big 12 title hopes are slipping away fast.

20. Army. Off last week, the Black Knights should get some help with other teams ahead of them in the rankings losing, but a huge game against Notre Dame awaits this weekend.

19. Arizona State. An important and somewhat dominant victory over ranked Kansas State has the Sun Devils within sight of the Big 12 title game, good enough for a nice jump in these rankings.

18. Clemson. Winning on the road against Pittsburgh isn’t as impressive as it might have been a few weeks ago.

17. South Carolina. A win over ranked Missouri should have the Gamecocks earning some more credibility with the committee this week.

16. Colorado. Sitting in second place in the Big 12 standings at 6-1 in conference play, the Buffaloes loss to Kansas State looks a little worse now given the latter’s struggles recently.

15. Texas A&M. We should see the Aggies stay put in the rankings after dominating New Mexico State.

14. SMU. Still undefeated in ACC play this week, but the Mustangs have a loss to BYU.

13. Boise State. Still the favorite in the Group of Five in the committee’s view, the Broncos’ one loss, by 3 to current No. 1 Oregon, is better than BYU’s loss, but they don’t have any wins over ranked opponents, whereas the Cougars do.

12. BYU. Still the favorite in the Big 12 title picture, the Cougars’ first loss of the season might be enough to deprive it of a first-round bye in this week’s bracket as the committee was already skeptical of the team’s full resume.

11. Ole Miss. The committee may drop the Rebels from the 12-team bracket projection this week in an effort to keep Alabama in, even with that win over Georgia two weeks ago.

10. Alabama. Trouncing Mercer likely won’t have any effect on the Crimson Tide’s placement in this week’s rankings.

9. Tennessee. The loss to Georgia hurts, but the Vols still have a win over Alabama that gives them a slight edge in the rankings.

8. Georgia. The committee still likes the Bulldogs’ win over Texas as arguably the best single showing in the SEC this year, and a two-score victory over then-No. 7 Tennessee boosts that credibility even more.

7. Miami. Idle last weekend, the Hurricanes are currently on the outside looking in at the ACC title race in third place and with their shot at a first-round bye in peril, but still right in the playoff mix as an at-large option.

6. Notre Dame. Another comfortable win for the Irish, at home against Virginia, and a likely jump in the rankings after BYU and Tennessee both lost.

5. Indiana. Off last week, the Hoosiers play the game of their season at Ohio State next week in a matchup the committee will be watching very closely.

4. Penn State. A rout against Big Ten punching bag Purdue won’t impress the committee too greatly, but it’s what this team is expected to do given the competition.

3. Texas. A close one for the Longhorns at Arkansas, but a win is a win and will keep this team likely out in front as the presumptive SEC champion in this week’s bracket, but there’s still more football to be played, especially at Texas A&M in the season finale.

2. Ohio State. The Buckeyes started slow but did enough to get past Northwestern by a decent margin on the road heading into this week’s clash against the Hoosiers.

1. Oregon. While the Ducks didn’t look very dominant on the road against Wisconsin, they found a way out and stayed undefeated, which should be enough to stay at No. 1 again this week.

Week 13 bracket projection

First Round Byes: Oregon, Texas, Miami, BYU

Notre Dame vs. Georgia
Winner plays Oregon

Ohio State vs. Boise State
Winner plays BYU

Indiana vs. Tennessee
Winner plays Texas

Penn State vs. Alabama
Winner plays Miami

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