College football today: Notre Dame vs. Penn State schedule for Thursday
Two more blue blood programs are on the same field today as a historic college football postseason schedule kicks off the first of two semifinal games.
Notre Dame and Penn State are set to meet in the Orange Bowl semifinal round game in Miami with the winner set to play for the national championship.
This playoff matchup finds two of college football’s most accomplished schools going head to head.
Notre Dame sits fourth all-time in NCAA history in total wins, and Penn State is eighth.
The schools come into the game an even 9-9-1 against each other, last meeting in a home and home series back in the 2006-07, with both games being won by the home team.
Coincidentally, both these teams played each other during the last season when each won the national championship, back in the 1980s.
Notre Dame beat the Nittany Lions by a 21-3 count back during the 1988 season en route to what remains its last national title.
Penn State got past the Fighting Irish on the road during its perfect 1986 season, when it last hoisted the trophy as kings of college football.
Now, both are looking to clinch another historic victory against the other as they pursue a place in the national championship game against either Ohio State or Texas.
Here’s how you can watch the action from the Orange Bowl as Notre Dame and Penn State square off in the College Football Playoff semifinal game today.
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College football today: Playoff, bowl schedule for Thursday
All times Eastern, and game lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Orange Bowl
College Football Playoff Semifinal
Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Thurs., Jan. 9 | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN
Line: Notre Dame -1.5
Notre Dame is on a two-game win streak during its playoff run and has won 12 straight games overall since that loss against Northern Illinois at home earlier in the season.
There was no shortage of analysts who were willing to write off the Fighting Irish after that loss, but in the dozen-team playoff era, there’s plenty of room for redemption in the expanded format.
Key to the Irish success has been a physical, inspired defense, ranking second nationally in scoring this year, and one of college football’s most productive rushing attacks.
Jeremiyah Love leads Notre Dame’s backfield, eclipsing 1,000 rushing yards while scoring 16 touchdowns this year, spearheading the nation’s 11th ranked rushing offense.
And while there was some concern about Love’s status for this game after he injured his knee the last time out, it appears he should be ready to go against the Nittany Lions.
Quarterback Riley Leonard is another critical piece of the Irish ground game, running for over 800 yards while scoring 15 times with his legs.
Leonard will need to capitalize on that capacity as he’s averaging just four yards per pass attempt when under pressure, and is responsible for a vertical game that is 101st nationally in production.
More ... Jeremiyah Love injury status vs. Penn State
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There’s one big injury question hovering over Penn State heading into this game, too.
That’s on the defensive side of the ball, as star edge rusher Abdul Carter is dealing with an injury to his upper left arm and shoulder area from the team’s Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal victory.
Carter was spotted wearing some very heavy wrapping in that game, and was unable to return to action, but all signs point to his being on the field.
More ... Abdul Carter injury update vs. Notre Dame
That is a very important development for a Penn State defense that comes into the game ranked in the top 10 nationally in most categories, especially against the rush.
And that could end up being the matchup that decides the game, as the Nittany Lions will have to be stout against the Irish ground game in order to pull off this upset.
It already proved up to the task, holding Heisman Trophy finalist Ashton Jeanty to just 3.5 yards per carry, the lowest output of his historic season, and only 104 yards of total production.
That defense was pivotal in the first round, intercepting two passes and returning them for touchdowns during its dominant victory against SMU in the school’s first playoff game.
Drew Allar is completing about 55 percent of his pass attempts, and all three of his touchdown passes came in the win against Boise State.
His primary target is do-everything tight end Tyler Warren, who has 10 receptions in two playoff games, and scored twice against the Broncos the last time out.
Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen lead Penn State’s strong backfield, both averaging nearly 7 yards per carry.
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What the models say
Football analytical models are split as to their projections for who wins this game.
Notre Dame is the narrow favorite to beat Penn State according to the ESPN College Football Power Index computer model.
That system uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.
It projects the Fighting Irish will win in the slight majority 58.7 percent of the computer’s simulations, while the Nittany Lions came out ahead in the other 41.3 percent of sims.
How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a close one.
Notre Dame is projected to be just 1.7 points better than Penn State on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast when taking an average of the 20,000 game simulations.
The SP+ prediction model takes a different view, but also expects a closely-fought game.
That projection indicates that Penn State will ultimately defeat Notre Dame on the field, but by a margin of just 0.3 points.
More ... Notre Dame vs. Penn State score prediction by football model
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Notre Dame vs. Penn State odds
Notre Dame is a 1.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.
FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game.
And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -120 and for Penn State at +100 to win outright.
Notre Dame: -1.5 (-108)
Penn State: +1.5 (-112)
Over 45.5 points: -102
Under 45.5 points: -120
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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