Washington Nationals' Patrick Corbin on Pace to Set Undesirable MLB Record

Patrick Corbin enters Monday's game against the San Francisco Giants with a 5.88 ERA on the season, which means the Washington Nationals veteran is at risk of making some unsavory history.

Jul 30, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Washington Nationals pitcher Patrick Corbin (46) pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Chase Field. / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Patrick Corbin, coming off his worst start of the season, is set to take the mound for the Washington Nationals against the San Francisco Giants on Monday.

The 35-year-old left-hander gave up 13 hits and 10 earned runs in 3.0 innings versus the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 30, tanking his stats in the process. He had previously posted back-to-back quality starts coming out of the All-Star break, only to wipe out that progress shortly after.

Now, Corbin enters Monday's contest 2-11 on the season with a 5.88 ERA, 1.529 WHIP, 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings and a -1.1 WAR. His ERA, which hasn't dipped below 5.26 at all this year, ranks dead last among qualified MLB pitchers.

Corbin also boasts an Adjusted Earned Run Average of 67, which unfortunately is not uncharted territory for the veteran southpaw. His ERA+ in 2021 was 70 and his ERA+ in 2022 was 62, with 100 representing league average.

According to Underdog Fantasy's Justin Havens, Corbin is currently one of three pitchers in the modern era to record multiple seasons with an ERA+ of 70 or lower and at least 120.0 innings pitched. Jim Deshaies and Vic Frazier are the other two, each doing so twice.

Should Corbin finish 2024 under that 70 ERA+ threshold, he would become the first pitcher in MLB history to post three such campaigns.

Patrick Corbin has a 5.88 ERA and a 67 ERA+ in 121 IP.

He’d be the first pitcher in MLB history to post 3 seasons with an ERA+ of 70 or lower (min. 120 IP).

He’s already 1 of 3 pitchers in modern baseball history to have multiple such seasons (Jim Deshaies, Vic Frazier).

— nugget chef (@jayhaykid) August 5, 2024

Corbin was a two-time All-Star with the Arizona Diamondbacks between 2012 and 2018, and he even earned NL Cy Young votes in his first year with the Nationals in 2019. When he won the World Series in Washington that fall, Corbin was 70-61 with a 3.80 ERA, 1.267 WHIP and 16.9 WAR for his career.

Since the start of 2020, however, Corbin is 29-68 with a 5.67 ERA, 1.543 WHIP and -2.5 WAR. He has led the NL in losses three times, earned runs allowed three times, hits allowed twice and home runs allowed once, with his 127 starts ranking fourth in all of MLB in that span.

Corbin has a chance to improve his ERA+ against the Giants on Monday, but recent history suggests he won't.

Of the 13 batters on the Giants' active roster, eight have faced Corbin before. All eight of those players own a batting average of at least .333 against Corbin, with six of them boasting a career OPS over 1.100 in the head-to-head matchup.

First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET.

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