2022 MLB Playoffs: National League Power Rankings Entering Postseason
The 2022 Major League Baseball season will come to a close Wednesday, with the Wild Card round of the playoffs beginning Friday.
The National League playoff field is close to being set. The Philadelphia Phillies hold a two-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers for the third and final NL Wild Card spot. The Phillies also own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Brewers.
The Phillies' magic number to clinch a playoff berth is one. If the Phillies win one of their three games that they will play in Houston this week, or if the Brewers lose one of their three games at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Phillies will make the playoffs for the first time since 2011, snapping the longest active playoff drought in the National League.
The Major League Baseball playoffs will look a little different this season. For the first time ever, 12 teams will enter the postseason.
Before the action begins on Friday, I thought it would be fun to do my final power rankings of the regular season.
I'm basing my power rankings off two questions:
'Who would I least want to play this October? Which team am I the most scared of?'
Let's start at the bottom and move towards the top:
7) Milwaukee Brewers (84-75) — Prior to last weekend, I would have placed the Brewers above the Phillies, but losing three of four at home to the Miami Marlins? Thanks for playing, Beermakers.
If the Brewers were to somehow sneak their way into the playoffs by sweeping the Diamondbacks and having the Astros sweep the Phillies, perhaps they would pose a greater threat, riding momentum, but even if that were to happen, a deep postseason run from the Brewers seems highly unlikely this fall.
6) Philadelphia Phillies (86-73) — Having Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola at the top of their rotation should make the Phillies a dangerous team in the postseason, but they aren't.
Since 2005, just two teams have finished the season with a negative Defensive Runs Saved total and won a World Series. The Phillies are once again a poor defensive club with -38 DRS, third-worst in Major League Baseball.
The Phillies haven't played very good baseball down the stretch either. Entering play Monday, they are 6-11 over their last 17 games.
5) San Diego Padres (87-72) — The Padres have the upside of a team that could get hot and go on a run. They also have the potential to have their season end on back-to-back days in the National League Wild Card Series. It's been a rollercoaster ride for San Diego fans all season. Against .500 teams, the Padres are 35-41 this season. I don't value the Padres higher than the Mets, or the three National League division champions.
4) New York Mets (98-61) — The Mets were a favorite all season long. Despite being swept by the Braves over the weekend, they still are a World Series contender.
Being able to have Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer make-up half of your playoff rotation makes them a favorite by many, but I'm not sold on that narrative. The Mets needed to win one game over the weekend and trotted out their top three starters. All three of them got shelled.
Scherzer's start doesn't concern me. He's a bulldog that you want on the mound with your season on the line. DeGrom, however, has an ERA of 6.00 over his last four starts, with three of them coming against weak teams. He hasn't pitched in the postseason since 2016, and he hasn't made more than 15 starts in a season since 2019.
I'm not convinced the Mets' pitching staff is miles ahead of the Cardinals', Braves' or Dodgers', as others might believe.
I like the Mets' lineup though. Their .258 team batting average is tied for the best in the National League with the Dodgers. The Mets have the second-lowest amount of strikeouts among NL teams.
I put a lot of value on teams that put the ball in play in the postseason and force their opponents to make mistakes. The pitching rotation might not be otherworldly, but it's still very good. It also helps that the Mets have the best closer in the National League.
My one question about the Mets is, 'How will they respond after being swept by their division rival and falling into the NL Wild Card Series?'
That type of loss can crush a team's morale or give it the kick in the rear that the team needs before the playoffs.
3) St. Louis Cardinals (92-67) — The Cardinals have once again shown to be a second-half team. Though they didn't win 17 games in a row down the stretch of this season, as they did last year, the Cardinals are 39-19 since July 30. Albert Pujols has awakened as a legitimate force in the Redbirds' lineup behind NL MVP candidates Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt.
The Cardinals are an elite defensive team that will not shoot itself in the foot in the field.
The Cardinals remade their pitching rotation, adding Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery to pair with Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright, and now have a healthy Jack Flaherty lurking.
On top of all of that, this season has played out like a movie, and the Cardinals are trying to win one for Pujols and Yadier Molina, in their final year with the team. You don't want to play a team that's playing for one of their all-time greats (ie: 2012 Baltimore Ravens and Ray Lewis), much less two of them. A World Series win would be a storybook ending to Pujols' illustrious career.
2) Los Angeles Dodgers (110-49) — With Walker Buehler, the Dodgers would be my number one team here. Without Buehler, in a loaded National League, I have some concerns for the Dodgers, even though they have won 110 games.
Tony Gonsolin has been excellent in 2022, but hasn't pitched since August 23. Past Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias, there are some question marks. What can the Dodgers expect from Gonsolin? Can they trust journeymen Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney, who each had a career ERA over 4.60 prior to 2022?
Their lineup is stacked and this is truly one of the great teams in baseball history. I just happen to think that there's another team that has played even better over the past four months...
1) Atlanta Braves (100-59) — It was hard for me to put the Dodgers at number two, but since June 1, when they trailed the Mets by 10.5 games in the NL East, the Braves are 77-32. The Dodgers are 77-33 in the same amount of time, setting up for what should be an epic part four of Dodgers-Braves, who have played each other in three of the last four postseasons.
The defending champions are hot, and they're battle-tested (see the weekend's series against the Mets). And they're better than they were a year ago.