AL East Preview Podcast: Yankees Team to Beat, Jays, Rays Ready to Contend in Tough Division

Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees are hoping to repeat as American League East champions, but the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays have other ideas. Here's our Fastball on FanNation preview, with an 18-minute video from publisher Tom Brew and AL East reporter Brady Farkas.

Tom Brew | Mar 28, 2023

AL East Preview Podcast: Yankees Team to Beat, Jays, Rays Ready to Contend in Tough Division /

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Aaron Judge had a season for the ages last season, hitting an American League-record 62 home runs and leading the New York Yankees to an AL East division title, easily besting the Toronto Blue Jays by seven games and the Tampa Bay Rays by 13.

The Yankees are favored to win the division again in 2023, but the Jays and Rays plan on having something to say about it when the regular season opens on Thursday.

The Yankees, swept by Houston in the playoffs, spent some cash in the offseason, locking up Judge with a nine-year, $360 million contract. They also bolstered their rotation, landing left-hander Carlos Rodon on a six-year deal with $162 million.

In our first of six division previews, Fastball on FanNation publisher Tom Brew and AL East reporter Brady Farkas break down the competitive division in an entertaining and enlightening 18-minute video. They'll break down all five teams, talk about the season's best story lines, and pick some winners.

Their preview and highlights on all five teams are below.

By the numbers

According to our friends at Fanduel.com, it's the Yankees who are scheduled to repeat as championships. Here are the odds for each team to win the American League East:

ODDS TO WIN DIVISION:
New York Yankees: Plus-130
Toronto Blue Jays: Plus-200
Tampa Bay Rays: Plus-280
Boston Red Sox: Plus-1800
Baltimore Orioles: Plus-2500
Editor's Note: Odds are based on a $100 wager. For instance, a $100 bet on the Yankees pays $130 if they win. The same wager on the Orioles would pay $2,500.

OVER/UNDER WINS TOTALS:
New York Yankees: 93.5
Toronto Blue Jays: 91.5
Tampa Bay Rays: 89.5
Boston Red Sox: 78.5
Baltimore Orioles: 76.5

Last year's standings

Team	Wins	Losses	Percentage	Games Behind
New York Yankees	99	63	.611	—
Toronto Blue Jays	92	70	.568	7
Tampa Bay Rays	86	76	.531	13
Baltimore Orioles	83	79	.512	16
Boston Red Sox	78	84	.481	21

New York Yankees

The Yankees really like their starting pitching, with Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes and the newly-acquired Carlos Rodon providing a solid punch at the top. Judge was great last year, and stayed healthy, but the rest of the lineup needs to be better.

Rookie Anthony Volpe won the job at shortstop, and the Yankees are hoping that oft-injured players like DJ LeMahieu, Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks can be more productive in 2013.

Injuries have already been an issue in the spring, and raise some concern going forward. Rodon (forearm muscle strain), starting pitcher Luis Severino (lat strain), starting pitcher Frankie Montas (shoulder surgery), outfielder Harrison Bader (oblique strain), pitcher Tommy Kahnle (biceps tendinitis) and pitcher Lou Trivino (elbow ligament sprain) will all start the season on the injured list.

BRADY'S TAKE: “I do think there’s questions on this team, and it’s based on injuries. They’ve already had a slew of injuries, especially in the rotation. There are guys out in the bullpen too.’ Aaron Judge had a healthy year last year, but can he repeat that? He’s been hurt just about every other year, so can he stay on the field. It’s the same with Giancarlo Stanton. He’s always dealing with injuries.’’

TOM'S TAKE: “When they were not playing good baseball last year, it was Aaron Judge in that lineup and that was it. I can see that being an issue again this year. If teams get smart this year and pitch around Judge, who’s going to deliver on a consistent basis?’’

OPENING DAY: San Francisco Giants (Logan Webb) at New York Yankees (Gerrit Cole), 1:05 p.m. ET.

New York Yankees rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe dives back int first base during a spring training game. (Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports)

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto was the pick to win the division a year ago, but bullpen woes and occasional lapses offensively did them in. They made the playoffs, but were quickly bounced by the Seattle Mariners in the first round.

Longtime Giants first baseman Brandon Belt joins the Jays on one-year deal, and newcomers Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho add two more lefty bats to a righty-heavy lineup. Standouts Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (first base), Bo Bichette (shortstop), Matt Chapman (third base), and George Springer (right field) are all back after good years at the plate.

Alex Manoah (16-7, 2.24 ERA) and Kevin Gausman (12-10, 3.35 ERA) anchor the rotation, and Chris Bassitt was a big offseason addition, signing a three-year deal after going 15-9 with the New York Mets a year ago.

BRADY'S TAKE: “I like Toronto better (than the Yankees). I don’t want to pitch to anyone in that lineup. They’ve added more depth to their lineup, and added more balance. They were too right-handed last year. The pitching staff improved, too. They were good last year, and now they’re even better. They’ve improved for sure.’’

TOM'S TAKE: “I’ve always have liked their lineup, and I think it’s even better. They did a nice job of adding pieces. Last year their bullpen really let them down, and they got better. They’ve got a lot of young arms they really like too.''

OPENING DAY: Toronto Blue Jays (Alek Manoah) at St. Louis Cardinals (Miles Mikolas), 4:10 p.m. ET.

Alek Manoah is the ace of the Toronto pitching staff. He was 16-7 a year ago.. (USA TODAY Sports)

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay's starting rotation, when healthy, might be the best in baseball. Shane McClanahan starts on Opening Day and Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen are back after impressive seasons a year ago.

Their biggest free agent pick-up, surprisingly, was another starter in Zach Elfin, who spent seven years with the Phillies and has looked great all spring. And the Rays will get Tyler Glasnow back down the road after suffering an oblique injury. He was electric in his return from Tommy John surgery last October. He pitched 11 2/3 innings and allowed only six hits and just one solo home run.

The Rays didn't hit much a year ago, and it was a bit surprising that they didn't add another bat or two in the offseason. They are counting on big years from infielders Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco, who were injured much of the 2022 season.

BRADY'S TAKE: “The reports out of training camp is that Zach Elfin has been really good.

TOM'S TAKE: "I think that rotation is really good and when they get Tyler Glasnow back, they’ve got five really good starters. I see Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco doing more, and I think Randy Arozarena will be my dark horse MVP. I’m leaning toward the Rays. That 89 win number, I think they’re better than that.’’

OPENING DAY: Detroit Tigers (Eduardo Rodriguez) at Tampa Bay Rays (Shane McClanahan), 3:10 p.m. ET

Shane McClanahan had a breakout year in 2022, and even earned a start in the All-Star game. He's looking for a complete season in 2023. (USA TODAY Sports)

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles won 83 games a year ago, their first winning season since 2016, and they are looking to continue watching their youth movement reap benefits. They made a huge 31-win improvement in 2022, making the big jump from a 52-110 season a year earlier.

Catcher Adley Rutschman had a great debut season, playing 117 games and hitting 13 homers and driving in 42 runs. Gunnar Henderson is the next big star, and he's going to get penciled in at third base every day.

Baltimore benefited from a great bullpen a year ago, and are hoping for more of teh same in 2023. The starting rotation needs to come through. It will be anchored by Kyle Gibson, with Cole Irvin, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer and Grayson Rodriguez coming up at some point. They all showing lots of promise.

BRADY'S TAKE: “We’ve seen young pitchers come up and make an impact, and I’ll be curious to see if Grayson Rodriguez does that when he finally comes out. They have some guys we like, but their rotation doesn’t seem to be ready to get them to an 87-win season or something like that.’’

TOM'S TAKE: "I thoroughly enjoyed Adley Rutschman coming up last year and the excitement around him is really something. And they’ve got Gunnar Henderson now to, who hopefully can do the same thing too. They made a huge step last year, and they’re going to be interesting to watch because of all their young guys. It’s the Orioles who might benefit most rom the new schedule because they won’t have to play the Yankees, Rays and Jays 57 times.''

OPENING DAY: Baltimore Orioles (Kyle Gibson) at Boston Red Sox (Corey Kluber), 1:05 p.m. ET.

Catcher Adley Rutschman had a brilliant rookie season for the Baltimore Orioles (USA TODAY Sports)

Boston Red Sox

Boston finished dead last a year ago, and lost several veterans like Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi, and they've brought in a lot of new faces to turn the tide.

Boston is already dealing with a lot of injuries this spring, including in its starting rotation. Thankfully, Chris Sale is healthy for the first time in a while. The hard-throwing lefty who will turn 34 on Opening Day has only pitched in 11 games that past two years. Corey Kluber comes over from Tampa Bay, but Garret Whitlock, Brayan Bello and James Paxton all will miss the start of the season with injuries. Thankfully, none are projected to be long-term.

There's no Trevor Story to start the season either, and there are concerns if the Red Sox can score enough.

BRADY'S TAKE: “They have some young guys worth watching, and the Red Sox really need them to be good. To me, they’re like a 76-win team, but if Chris Sale can make 20 starts, if, if, if, if. That doesn’t seem likely, because they have some rotation uncertainty. Hope is not a good strategy.’’

TOM'S TAKE: “I know they’ve got young guys coming, but they’re rotation is already in shambles and I have a real concern that they’re going to struggle this year, especially early with all those starters out.’’

OPENING DAY: Baltimore Orioles (Kyle Gibson) at Boston Red Sox (Corey Kluber), 1:05 p.m. ET.

Our division picks

BRADY FARKAS: Blue Jays over the Yankees.

TOM BREW: Rays over the Yankees and Blue Jays by a game or two.