Breaking Down Every Possible Outcome of Dramatic NL Wild Card Race

The New York Mets, Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks are all fighting for two playoff spots heading into the final scheduled day of the 2024 regular season.

Sep 24, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves designated hitter Marcell Ozuna (20) celebrates after a home run past New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) in the fifth inning at Truist Park. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

There have been 2,413 games played in the 193 days since Opening Day, and the field for the 2024 MLB Postseason still isn't set.

Heading into the final official day of the regular season, 10 teams have clinched the playoffs. That leaves two berths still up for grabs – the last two Wild Card bids on the National League side of the bracket.

The San Diego Padres have already cemented themselves as the top NL Wild Card, while the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers have all already won their respective divisions. The Atlanta Braves, meanwhile, are currently in the second NL Wild Card position, holding a 1.0-game lead over both the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks.

Everyone else below the Mets and D-Backs has been eliminated, leaving three teams competing for just two spots.

The Mets are set to take on the Brewers on Sunday, while the Diamondbacks have been matched up with the Padres, and the Braves have been pitted against the Kansas City Royals.

Milwaukee and San Diego don't have much to play for, considering they are both locked into their current seeds. Kansas City, on the other hand, still has a chance to swap places with the Detroit Tigers and take hold of the No. 5 seed in the American League.

An interesting wrench that has been thrown into the mix is the fact that the Mets and Braves had the last two games of their head-to-head series last week postponed due to thunderstorms and Hurricane Helene. Both games are scheduled to be made up as part of a doubleheader on Monday, but that is contingent on what goes down on Sunday.

With all of that being said, here is what each team needs to happen in order to clinch the playoffs.

The Braves control their own destiny with a magic number of one. If they complete their sweep over the Royals on Sunday, they will punch their ticket to October. They can also make it if all three teams lose Sunday.

The Mets can clinch the playoffs with a win and a Diamondbacks loss. The Diamondbacks have the messiest path to the postseason, needing a win, a Braves loss and a Mets loss to secure their berth on Sunday.

If either New York loses or Arizona wins on Sunday, the Monday doubleheader between the Mets and Braves would be given the green light.

Should the Mets lose and Diamondbacks win on Sunday, New York would need to win both games against Atlanta in order to make the playoffs. That means the doubleheader could be called off early if the Braves win the opener, regardless of their result on Sunday.

But if all three teams win on Sunday, the Mets would only need to win one of the two games in order to advance.

FanGraphs currently gives the Braves a 96.2% chance of reaching the postseason. The Mets are being given a 64.2% chance, compared to the Diamondbacks' 39.6% odds.

The Mets and Diamondbacks will get their games going at 3:10 p.m. ET, followed by the Braves-Royals finale at 3:20 ET, limiting the impact of any potential scoreboard watching.

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